ARTMIP-early start comparison of atmospheric river detection tools: how many atmospheric rivers hit northern California’s Russian River watershed?
ARTMIP-early start comparison of atmospheric river detection tools: how many atmospheric rivers hit northern California’s Russian River watershed?
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-018-4427-5
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发表时间：
2018-09
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
F. Ralph;Anna M. Wilson;T. Shulgina;B. Kawzenuk;S. Sellars;J. Rutz;M. A. Lamjiri;E. Barnes;A. Gershunov;B. Guan;K. Nardi;Tashiana Osborne;G. Wick
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文献类型：
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作者：
F. Ralph;Anna M. Wilson;T. Shulgina;B. Kawzenuk;S. Sellars;J. Rutz;M. A. Lamjiri;E. Barnes;A. Gershunov;B. Guan;K. Nardi;Tashiana Osborne;G. Wick
现在已经开发了许多大气河流探测工具(ARDT)。然而，他们的相对表现并没有很好的记录。本文通过将不同的ARDT应用于一个地点来比较不同的ARDT，在那里可以获得来自加利福尼亚州博德加湾大气河流天文台的独特的12年长的时间序列。这项研究量化了该部位ARS的诊断数量、持续时间和强度对ARDT的选择和再分析数据集的选择的敏感性。这里比较的ARDT代表了一系列方法，这些方法在使用不同的变量、固定阈值与基于百分比的阈值、几何形状要求、欧拉方法与拉格朗日方法以及重新分析方面有所不同。ARDT首先使用最初发表的数据集进行评估，发现平均年计数为19 ± 7。将ARDT应用于相同的再分析数据集，得到平均年计数为19 ± 4。对不同网格大小(0.5°，1.0°-2.5°)的三次再分析应用一次ARDT，对再分析的选择几乎不敏感。根据ARDT的不同，年平均AR事件数变化约2倍(每年10-25次)，平均AR持续时间和最大强度变化小于± 10%，即24 ± 2小时持续时间；458 ± 44 m− 1s− 1max IVT。对使用更高阈值的综合水汽输送的ARDT进行了单独比较，平均每年只产生1-2个ART。一般来说，包括更严格的几何标准或更高阈值的ARDT识别出的AR事件最少。
Many atmospheric river detection tools (ARDTs) have now been developed. However, their relative performance is not well documented. This paper compares a diverse set of ARDTs by applying them to a single location where a unique 12-year-long time-series from an atmospheric river observatory at Bodega Bay, California is available. The study quantifies the sensitivity of the diagnosed number, duration, and intensity of ARs at this location to the choice of ARDT, and to the choice of reanalysis data set. The ARDTs compared here represent a range of methods that vary in their use of different variables, fixed vs. percentile-based thresholds, geometric shape requirements, Eulerian vs. Lagrangian approaches, and reanalyses. The ARDTs were evaluated first using the datasets documented in their initial publication, which found an average annual count of 19 ± 7. Applying the ARDTs to the same reanalysis dataset yields an average annual count of 19 ± 4. Applying a single ARDT to three reanalyses of varying grid sizes (0.5°, 1.0°–2.5°) showed little sensitivity to the choice of reanalysis. While the annual average AR event count varied by about a factor of two (10–25 per year) depending on the ARDT, average AR duration and maximum intensity varied by less than ± 10%, i.e., 24 ± 2 h duration; 458 ± 44 kg m− 1s− 1maximum IVT. ARDTs that use a much higher threshold for integrated vapor transport were compared separately, and yielded just 1–2 ARs annually on average. Generally, ARDTs that include either more stringent geometric criteria or higher thresholds identified the fewest AR events.