Carrots, Sticks, and Insurgent Targeting of Civilians
Carrots, Sticks, and Insurgent Targeting of Civilians
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胡萝卜、大棒和叛乱分子针对平民的攻击
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Joseph K. Young
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Victor Asal;B. J. Phillips;R. Rethemeyer;Corina Simonelli;Joseph K. Young
和解和强制性的反叛乱策略如何影响激进组织对平民的暴力行为？内战学者越来越多地寻求理解故意以平民为目标，通常被称为恐怖主义。现有的研究强调群体的弱点，或一般的国家属性，如政权类型。我们把恐怖主义作为暴力传播和对政府行动的回应。国家对团体的策略，胡萝卜和大棒，应该是解释叛乱恐怖的重要因素。我们使用叛乱组织的新数据来测试这一论点，这些数据具有许多随时间变化的变量，涵盖1998年至2012年。结果表明，政府对一个群体的胁迫与该群体随后的恐怖主义有关。然而，这只是较大的叛乱团体的情况，这使人对恐怖主义作为弱者武器的概念产生疑问。胡萝卜通常与群体恐怖主义呈负相关。与叛乱恐怖主义有关的其他因素包括占领领土、族裔动机和提供社会服务。
How do conciliatory and coercive counterinsurgency tactics affect militant group violence against civilians? Scholars of civil war increasingly seek to understand intentional civilian targeting, often referred to as terrorism. Extant research emphasizes group weakness, or general state attributes such as regime type. We focus on terrorism as violent communication and as a response to government actions. State tactics toward groups, carrots and sticks, should be important for explaining insurgent terror. We test the argument using new data on terrorism by insurgent groups, with many time-varying variables, covering 1998 through 2012. Results suggest government coercion against a group is associated with subsequent terrorism by that group. However, this is only the case for larger insurgent groups, which raises questions about the notion of terrorism as a weapon of the weak. Carrots are often negatively related to group terrorism. Other factors associated with insurgent terrorism include holding territory, ethnic motivation, and social service provision.