Planning a Return to Normal after the COVID-19 Pandemic: Identifying Safe Contact Levels via Online Optimization
Planning a Return to Normal after the COVID-19 Pandemic: Identifying Safe Contact Levels via Online Optimization
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计划在 COVID-19 大流行后恢复正常：通过在线优化确定安全接触水平
DOI：
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Buchwald
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Bianchin;E. Dall’Anese;J. Poveda;David Jacobson;E. Carlton;A. Buchwald
自2020年初以来，非药物干预措施（npi）一直是控制SARS-CoV-2传播的主要手段，这些措施的实施程度各不相同，并基于对风险承受能力的广泛不同看法。我们试图确定风险承受能力和疫苗接种率如何影响人群恢复大流行前接触行为的比率。为此，我们开发了一种新的反馈控制方法，用于数据驱动的决策，以确定跨地理区域的npi的最佳水平，以保证住院治疗不会超过给定的风险承受能力。结果显示了科罗拉多州的情况，它们表明：跨区域的决策协调对于保持每日住院人数低于预期限制至关重要；增加风险容忍度可以减少停止国家行动方案所需的天数，但代价是死亡人数增加；如果在大多数风险承受水平上，疫苗接种率低于70%，那么在2022年最初几个月之前恢复到大流行前的接触行为，可能会对卫生保健系统造成新的危害。
Since the early months of 2020, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) -- implemented at varying levels of severity and based on widely-divergent perspectives of risk tolerance -- have been the primary means to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We seek to identify how risk tolerance and vaccination rates impact the rate at which a population can return to pre-pandemic contact behavior. To this end, we develop a novel feedback control method for data-driven decision-making to identify optimal levels of NPIs across geographical regions in order to guarantee that hospitalizations will not exceed a given risk tolerance. Results are shown for the state of Colorado, and they suggest that: coordination in decision-making across regions is essential to maintain the daily number of hospitalizations below the desired limits;increasing risk tolerance can decrease the number of days required to discontinue NPIs, at the cost of an increased number of deaths;and if vaccination uptake is less than 70\%, at most levels of risk tolerance, return to pre-pandemic contact behaviors before the early months of 2022 may newly jeopardize the healthcare system.
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
G. Bianchin;J. Cortés;J. Poveda;E. Dall’Anese
通讯作者：
G. Bianchin;J. Cortés;J. Poveda;E. Dall’Anese