LABOR-FORCE DYNAMICS OF OLDER MEN
LABOR-FORCE DYNAMICS OF OLDER MEN
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DOI：
10.2307/2951478
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发表时间：
1994-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
BLAU, DM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BLAU, DM
本文描述和分析了老年男性之间的劳动力状态的季度观察来自退休历史调查（RHS）。使用这些季度记录与来自RHS和其他来源的更典型的两年期记录对转换率进行比较，发现两年期数据中存在大量低估，表明以前低估了老年劳动力流动的普遍性。季度数据显示，65岁时的退出率比不太频繁的数据要高得多。估计的简化形式的劳动力转移模型的参数。该模型的一个新特点是探索老年劳动力行为的动态方面。结果表明，劳动力动态在老年人是重要的，包括持续时间和拼写发生的依赖性，和工作经验的影响。对于未观察到的异质性，这些效应对非参数控制具有稳健性。估计表明，社会保障福利对老年劳动力过渡的时间有很大的影响，但随着时间的推移，社会保障福利水平的变化对劳动力提前退出的趋势没有多大贡献。
This paper describes and analyzes movements of older men among labor force states using quarterly observations derived from the Retirement History Survey (RHS). A comparison of transition rates using these quarterly records with the more typical biannual records from the RHS and other sources reveals substantial undercounts in the binannual data, indicating that the prevalence of labor force movements at older ages has been underestimated previously. The quarterly data reveal a much sharper spike in the exit rate at exact age 65 than is found in data measured al less frequent intervals. Estimates are presented of the parameters of a reduced form model of labor force transitions. A novel feature of the model is the exploration of dynamic aspects of labor force behavior at older ages. The results show that labor force dynamics at older ages are important, including duration and spell occurrence dependence, and work experience effects. These effects are robust to nonparametric controls for unobserved heterogeneity. The estimates indicate that social security benefits have strong effects on the timing of labor force transitions at older ages, but that changes in social security benefit levels over time have not contributed much to the trend toward earlier labor force exit.