Spatial analysis of the reliability of transport networks subject to rainfall‐induced landslides
Spatial analysis of the reliability of transport networks subject to rainfall‐induced landslides
复制标题
降雨引发滑坡影响交通网络可靠性的空间分析
DOI：
10.1002/hyp.6927
复制
发表时间：
2008
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
M. Anderson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
L. Manning;Jim W Hall;C. Kilsby;S. Glendinning;M. Anderson
开发了一种方法来检查运输系统对降雨引起的滑坡的易感性，并在英国部分铁路网中进行了演示，以考虑气候变化可能发生的潜在变化。建立了系统失效的数学模型，并建立了铁路沿线各点雨量联合分布的统计模型。这些用于研究铁路沿线土路堤对当前和未来气候情景的响应，包括降雨和蒸散发对边坡水文和稳定性的影响。结果表明，对于所讨论的粘土堤防系统，夏末堤防的湿度剖面对系统的稳定性有关键影响，无论是在预期的破坏时间还是破坏概率方面。此外，可以看出，随着气候的变化，除非考虑气候变化的另一个潜在影响——路堤材料性能的退化，否则系统稳定性可能会增加。故障的空间分布也可能发生变化。版权所有©2008 John Wiley & Sons， Ltd
A methodology is developed to examine the susceptibility of a transport system to rainfall‐induced landslides and is demonstrated for part of the UK rail network with regard to the potential changes that might occur with climate change. A mathematical model is given for the system failure and a statistical model is formulated for the joint distribution of rainfall at different points along the railway line. These are used to investigate the response of earth embankments along the railway line to current and future climate scenarios, including the effects of rainfall and evapotranspiration on slope hydrology and stability. It is shown that, for the system of clay embankments in question, the moisture profile through the embankment at the end of the summer months has a critical effect on system stability, both in terms of expected failure timing and probability of failure. Further, it is seen that, with changing climate, the system stability is likely to increase unless the degradation of embankment material properties, another potential effect of changed climate, is taken into account. The spatial distribution of failures is also likely to change. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.