Cohort differences in the progression of developmental pathways: evidence for period effects on secular trends of violence in males.
Cohort differences in the progression of developmental pathways: evidence for period effects on secular trends of violence in males.
复制标题
发展路径进展的队列差异：男性暴力长期趋势的时期影响的证据。
DOI：
10.1136/ip.2007.017814
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Loeber,R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fabio,A;Yuan,Z;Wisniewski,SR;Henry,DB;Farrington,DP;Bridge,JA;Loeber,R
BackgroundRates of violence in the USA have fluctuated widely over the past few decades. Theorists have examined period and cohort effects, but there appear to be no studies examining these effects on progression in developmental pathways towards violence.ObjectiveTo assess whether differences in progression among individuals in the Pittsburgh Youth Study are consistent with period or cohort effects.DesignMultivariate logistic regression was conducted to examine differences between cohorts in the odds of progressing through the developmental pathway towards violence. Adjusted and unadjusted odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% CI are reported.SettingPittsburgh Pennsylvania, from 1987 to 2000.SubjectsTwo cohorts of male adolescents from the Pittsburgh Youth Study. The youngest cohort (n = 503) was followed from median ages 7 to 20, and the oldest cohort (n = 506) was followed up from median ages 13 to 25.Main outcome measureThe odds of progression along a developmental pathway towards violence.ResultsThere was no statistically significant difference between the cohorts in progression from minor aggression to physical fighting (OR = 1.13, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.65). However, after adjustment for major risk factors, the oldest cohort was significantly more likely to progress from physical fighting to violence (OR = 2.34, 95% CI 1.39 to 3.92).ConclusionsThese results provide initial evidence that cohort effects, which would be present early in development, do not contribute significantly to later differences in reported violence and raises the possibility of whether period effects can explain these differences.
