Mathematical Modelling of the Transmission Dynamics of
Mathematical Modelling of the Transmission Dynamics of
复制标题
传动动力学的数学模型
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Diakhaby
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Amenaghawon C. Osemwinyen;A. Diakhaby
该研究使用两种模型模拟了扎伊尔埃博拉病毒的传播动力学：一种是修改后的SIR模型，认为康复者可以再次感染，感染者以一定的速度死亡，另一种是隔离模型，确定了隔离感染者的效果。在此基础上，建立了变速器的常微分方程组，并采用线性化稳定性方法求解。对两个模型的稳定性分析表明，如果存在无病平衡态，则模型的无病平衡态是不稳定的。这些平衡状态表明，这种疾病很容易被触发，因此需要不断提高警惕，并采取有效的预防措施防止其蔓延。此外，还对模型参数进行了数值实验，指定了具体的假设值，并绘制了图表，以研究这些参数对疾病传播的影响。结果表明，由于扎伊尔型埃博拉病毒的性质，在无免疫力和药物的情况下，感染者与易感者之间的接触可导致非常严重的暴发，死亡率高。然而，如果建立有效的预防结构，这种情况可以得到更好的管理和控制。
The study simulated the transmission dynamics of Ebola Zaire virus using two models: a modified SIR model with the understanding that the recovered can become infected again and the infected die at a certain rate and a quarantine model, which ascertained the effects of quarantining the infected. Furthermore, an appropriate system of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) was formulated for the transmission and the method of linearized stability approach was used to solve the equations. Stability analysis of both models indicated that, the Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) states of the models were unstable if they exist. These equilibria states showed that the disease can easily be triggered off, so there is need to be constantly alert and effective preventive measures put in place against its spread. In addition, numerical experiments were carried out with the models' parameters assigned specific hypothetical values and graphs were plotted to investigate the effect of these parameters on the transmission of the disease. The results showed that, with the nature of Ebola Zaire virus, uncontrolled transmittable contacts between the infected and the susceptible can lead to a very serious outbreak with high mortality rate, since no immunity and drugs at moment. However, with effective quarantining structures put in place such situation can be better managed and outbreak controlled.