Meeting the Institute of Medicine's 2030 US Life Expectancy Target.
Meeting the Institute of Medicine's 2030 US Life Expectancy Target.
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DOI：
10.2105/ajph.2017.304099
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发表时间：
2018-01
影响因子：
12.7
通讯作者：
Zidan M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kindig D;Nobles J;Zidan M
量化到 2030 年美国预期寿命达到与资源丰富国家相当所需的改善程度，记录这一比率的历史先例，并讨论美国实现这一比率的可能性。我们对 1985 年至 2015 年 5 年期间的二手数据进行了人口分析。为了实现联合国对西欧 2030 年死亡率的估计，美国的预期寿命必须在 2016 年至 2030 年间以每年 0.32% 的速度增长。这个比率是有先例的，即使在低死亡率人群中也是如此。在调查的 204 个国家/地区中，近一半的预期寿命增长率超过 0.32%。在观察的 51 个美国州中，8.2% 的州期预期寿命增长超过了 0.32% 的目标。尽管有历史先例，但在未来 15 年实现预期寿命的必要增长将具有挑战性。许多全因死亡率是几十年前就形成的，目前美国老年人死亡率的下降速度正在放缓。解决所有年龄段死亡率下降的问题需要增强政治意愿和对改善美国人口公平的坚定承诺。
To quantify the improvement in US life expectancy required to reach parity with high-resource nations by 2030, to document historical precedent of this rate, and to discuss the plausibility of achieving this rate in the United States. We performed a demographic analysis of secondary data in 5-year periods from 1985 to 2015. To achieve the United Nations projected mortality estimates for Western Europe in 2030, the US life expectancy must grow at 0.32% a year between 2016 and 2030. This rate has precedent, even in low-mortality populations. Over 204 country-periods examined, nearly half exhibited life-expectancy growth greater than 0.32%. Of the 51 US states observed, 8.2% of state-periods demonstrated life-expectancy growth that exceeded the 0.32% target. Achieving necessary growth in life expectancy over the next 15 years despite historical precedent will be challenging. Much all-cause mortality is structured decades earlier and, at present, older-age mortality reductions in the United States are decelerating. Addressing mortality decline at all ages will require enhanced political will and a strong commitment to equity improvement in the US population.