The Impact of International Economic Sanctions on Trade: An Empirical Analysis
The Impact of International Economic Sanctions on Trade: An Empirical Analysis
复制标题
国际经济制裁对贸易的影响：实证分析
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.895841
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Raul Caruso
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Raul Caruso
国际经济制裁似乎是国家间政治互动的一个常见和反复出现的特征。特别是美国是第二次世界大战后实施消极经济制裁最频繁的国家。与此同时，近年来，联合国等多边组织也采取了一些措施。本文通过引力模型方法，估计了经济负面制裁对国际贸易的影响。首先，该研究报告了1960年至2000年期间美国与49个目标国家之间双边贸易的小组重力估计。结果表明，广泛和全面的制裁对双边贸易产生了较大的负面影响，而有限和适度的制裁则没有这种影响。第二项估计侧重于美国单方面制裁对目标国家与其他七国集团国家同期双边贸易额的影响。结果表明，单边广泛制裁对其他G7国家双边贸易有较大的负面影响，而有限和适度制裁对其他G7国家双边贸易有轻微的正面影响。因此，在第一种情况下，负面的“网络效应”的假设得到证实，而在后一种情况下，应该为破坏制裁的论点辩护。然而，在这两项估计中，多边制裁对贸易流动产生了巨大的负面影响。
International economic sanctions appear to be a common and recurring feature of political interactions between states. In particular, the United States is the country which has most frequently applied negative economic sanctions after World War II. In a parallel way, several measures, imposed by a multilateral organisation like the United Nations have taken place in recent years. This paper provides, through a gravity model approach, an estimation of the impact of economic negative sanctions on international trade. First, the study reports panel gravity estimates of bilateral trade between the U.S. and 49 target countries over the period 1960-2000, inclusive. The results show that extensive and comprehensive sanctions have a large negative impact on bilateral trade, while this is not the case for limited and moderate sanctions. A second estimation focuses on the impact of unilateral U.S. sanctions on bilateral trade volume between target countries and the other G-7 countries over the same period. The results show that unilateral extensive sanctions have a large negative impact, while limited and moderate ones induce a slight positive effect on other G-7 countries bilateral trade. Thus, in the first case the hypothesis of negative 'network effects' is confirmed, while in the latter the sanctions-busting argument should be defended. In both estimations, however, multilateral sanctions demonstrate a large negative impact on trade flows.