Do social adaptations increase earthquake resilience?
Do social adaptations increase earthquake resilience?
复制标题
社会适应是否会增强抗震能力？
DOI：
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101972
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
NicBhloscaidh M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
NicBhloscaidh M
地震多发的智利的祖父母教孩子识别承重墙，菲律宾开发了一个国际上受人尊敬的灾害管理系统。这种低成本的社会适应是否会增加社区对地震的适应能力，或者贫穷国家是否永远注定要在小地震中造成大量死亡？我们试图回答这个问题，通过量化暴露人口的脆弱性，在USGS PAGER系统记录的一组地震。我们首先通过对已公布的死亡率、震动强度和人口暴露数据进行统计建模来消除强烈震动的影响;这种纯物理模型的无法解释的方差主要由社会经济因素对地震死亡率增加的贡献决定，因此其系统学说明了这一点。我们发现，这种差异划分国家在基本的社会经济措施，并允许定义地震脆弱性指数，它确定了两个极端的弹性和极端脆弱的国家。毫不奇怪，富裕国家表现良好，而一般而言，贫穷国家更脆弱。然而，一些低GDP国家在抵御地震的能力上甚至可以与最富有的国家相媲美，这表明社会和政治意愿可以提高抵御能力。在昂贵的工程解决方案变得更加普遍可用之前，以相对低成本的干预措施客观地瞄准资源可能有助于扭转地震死亡率上升的趋势。
Grandparents in earthquake-prone Chile teach children to identify load-bearing walls, and the Philippines has developed an internationally respected disaster management system. Do such low-cost, social adaptations increase community resilience to earthquakes, or are poorer countries forever doomed to large death tolls in small earthquakes? We attempt to answer this question by quantifying the vulnerability of exposed populations to a set of earthquakes recorded in the USGS PAGER system. We first remove the effect of strong shaking by statistically modelling published mortality, shaking intensity and population exposure data; unexplained variance from this purely physical model is dominated by, and its systematics therefore illuminate, the contribution of socio-economic factors to increasing earthquake mortality. We find that this variance partitions countries in terms of basic socio-economic measures and allows the definition of an Earthquake Vulnerability Index, which identifies both anomalously resilient and anomalously vulnerable countries. Unsurprisingly, wealthy countries perform well, while in general poor countries are more vulnerable. However some low-GDP countries rival even the richest in their ability to resist shaking, suggesting that social and political will can increase resilience. Until expensive engineering solutions become more universally available, the objective targeting of resources at relatively low-cost interventions might help reverse the trend of increasing mortality in earthquakes.
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Allen, Trevor I.;Marano, Kristin D.;Wald, David J.
通讯作者：
Wald, David J.
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
M. Hosseini;Y. Izadkhah
通讯作者：
Y. Izadkhah