Joint Estimation of Generation Time and Incubation Period for Coronavirus Disease 2019
Joint Estimation of Generation Time and Incubation Period for Coronavirus Disease 2019
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DOI：
10.1093/infdis/jiab424
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发表时间：
2021-08-23
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Cowling, Benjamin J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lau, Yiu Chung;Tsang, Tim K.;Cowling, Benjamin J.
背景2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）在全球造成了沉重的疾病负担。数据收集的过程和时间对关键流行病学分布估计准确性的影响尚不清楚。由于感染时间通常是不可观察的，有相对较少的世代时间分布的估计。我们开发了一个统计框架来联合估计人传人对的世代时间和潜伏期，并考虑到抽样偏差。我们将该框架应用于中国80个实验室确认的人传人对。我们进一步推断了COVID-19的传染性特征、序列间隔分布、症状前传播比例和基本繁殖数（R-0）。估计的平均潜伏期为4.8天（95%置信区间[CI]，4.1-5.6），平均世代时间为5.7天（95% CI，4.8-6.5）。基于估计世代时间的估计R-0为2.2（95% CI，1.9-2.4）。仿真研究表明，该方法可以提供无偏估计，且对曝光窗口宽度不敏感。正确解释数据收集的时间和过程对于正确估计生成时间和潜伏期至关重要。当R-0是基于作为世代时间的代理的序列间隔而导出时，它可能是有偏差的。
Background. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a heavy disease burden globally. The impact of process and timing of data collection on the accuracy of estimation of key epidemiological distributions are unclear. Because infection times are typically unobserved, there are relatively few estimates of generation time distribution.Methods. We developed a statistical framework to jointly estimate generation time and incubation period from human-to-human transmission pairs, accounting for sampling biases. We applied the framework on 80 laboratory-confirmed human-to-human transmission pairs in China. We further inferred the infectiousness profile, serial interval distribution, proportions of presymptomatic transmission, and basic reproduction number (R-0) for COVID-19.Results. The estimated mean incubation period was 4.8 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1-5.6), and mean generation time was 5.7 days (95% CI, 4.8-6.5). The estimated R-0 based on the estimated generation time was 2.2 (95% CI, 1.9-2.4). A simulation study suggested that our approach could provide unbiased estimates, insensitive to the width of exposure windows.Conclusions. Properly accounting for the timing and process of data collection is critical to have correct estimates of generation time and incubation period. R-0 can be biased when it is derived based on serial interval as the proxy of generation time.