Cost dynamics of wind power
Cost dynamics of wind power
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DOI：
10.1016/s0360-5442(99)00010-9
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发表时间：
1999-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Neij, L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Neij, L
本文分析了降低风力发电成本的前景。特别注意风力涡轮机的动态发展，即根据在风力涡轮机的生产和使用中获得的经验进行发展。使用经验曲线描述与风力涡轮机相关的历史和未来成本降低。分析结果表明，虽然风力涡轮机的经验曲线表明成本降低相对温和，但风力发电的成本有可能大幅降低。这是因为，除了风力涡轮机成本的降低之外，风力发电的成本还将受到性能提高和运营及维护成本降低的影响。研究结果表明，假设风力发电市场年增长率为15- 20%，到2020年，风力发电的平均成本将几乎降低一半。(C)1999爱思唯尔科技有限公司。保留所有权利。
This paper describes an analysis of the prospects of reducing the cost of wind-generated electricity. Special attention has been paid to the dynamic development of wind turbines, i.e. development based on experience gained in the production and use of wind turbines. Historical and future cost reductions associated with wind turbines are described using experience curves. The results of the analysis show that although the experience curve for wind turbines indicates relatively moderate cost reductions there is potential for considerable cost reductions in wind-generated electricity. This is due to the fact that the cost of wind-generated electricity will be affected by improved performance and reduced operating and maintenance costs, in addition to the reduction in cost of wind turbines. The results show that the average cost of wind-generated electricity will almost be reduced by half by the year 2020, assuming an annual market growth of 15-20%. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.