Quantifying the relative contribution of climate and human impacts on seasonal streamflow
Quantifying the relative contribution of climate and human impacts on seasonal streamflow
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量化气候和人类影响对季节性水流的相对贡献
DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.04.095
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Zhang Chi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xin Zhuohang;Li Yu;Zhang Lu;Ding Wei;Ye Lei;Wu Jian;Zhang Chi
气候变化和人类活动导致水文过程发生变化。由于气候变量和人类活动的季节性，量化它们对径流的影响是一个挑战，特别是在季节尺度上。将基于Budyko方程的分解方法推广到季节尺度，通过定义汇发河流域径流变化前后的时段（1953-1974）和时段（1975-2005），定量分析了气候和人类活动对汇发河流域径流年、季变化的影响。月ABCD模型进一步验证了这一结果。气候变化和人类活动都导致了年径流量的减少，其中68%的变化是由人类活动引起的。在季节尺度上，直接人为引起的径流量下降占67%和39%，分别为能源有限和水有限的季节，总的变化，而直接人类活动的影响更为明显，在灌溉季节，由于取水灌溉。此外，分解结果进行了分析，每个月的能量限制的季节，以揭示在汛期的降水和池塘和水库的运作规则的影响。
Climate change and human activities have induced alterations to hydrological processes. The quantification of their impacts on streamflow is a challenge, especially at the seasonal scale due to seasonality of climate variables and human activities. In this study, the decomposition method based on Budyko equation is extended to the seasonal scale for quantifying the climate and direct human impacts on annual and seasonal streamflow changes in Huifa River basin by defining prechange period (1953–1974) and postchange period (1975–2005). The results are further verified by the monthly abcd model. Both climate change and direct human activities are found to induce a decrease in streamflow at the annual scale, with 68% of the change contributed by direct human activities. At the seasonal scale, the direct human-induced declines in streamflow account for 67% and 39% of the total changes for energy-limited and water-limited seasons, respectively; whereas, the impact of direct human activities is more pronounced during the irrigation season due to water withdrawal for irrigation. In addition, the decomposition results are analyzed for each month in the energy-limited season to reveal the effects of precipitation and operation rules of ponds and reservoirs during the flood season.