Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds
Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-018-0115-z
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发表时间：
2018-04-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Lewis, Sue
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Keogan, Katharine;Daunt, Francis;Lewis, Sue
生殖时间在许多分类群中起着决定育种生产力的关键作用（1），并且通常对气候条件敏感（2）。目前的气候变化可能会改变不同营养水平下繁殖的时间，可能导致捕食者和猎物的资源需求之间的时间不匹配（3）。这对高营养级生物尤其重要，因为它们的世代时间较长，比初级生产者或消费者的进化拯救率更低（4）。然而，海洋系统生态变化研究之间的脱节使得难以检测繁殖时间的一般变化（5）。在这里，我们对来自145个繁殖种群的209个物候时间序列进行了综合荟萃分析，结果表明，平均而言，全球海鸟种群在1952年至2015年期间没有随时间（-0.020天/年）或海面温度（SST）（-0.272天摄氏度）调整其繁殖季节。然而，在留居物种和一些Pelecaniformes和Suliformes（鸬鹚，塘鹅和鲣鸟）中观察到的时间上的显着年间变化可能意味着，在某些情况下，时间受到无法测量的环境条件的影响。这种有限的温度介导的海鸟生殖时间可塑性可能使这些顶级捕食者非常容易受到未来与低营养级资源不匹配的影响。
Reproductive timing in many taxa plays a key role in determining breeding productivity(1), and is often sensitive to climatic conditions(2). Current climate change may alter the timing of breeding at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in temporal mismatch between the resource requirements of predators and their prey(3). This is of particular concern for higher-trophic-level organisms, whose longer generation times confer a lower rate of evolutionary rescue than primary producers or consumers(4). However, the disconnection between studies of ecological change in marine systems makes it difficult to detect general changes in the timing of reproduction(5). Here, we use a comprehensive meta-analysis of 209 phenological time series from 145 breeding populations to show that, on average, seabird populations worldwide have not adjusted their breeding seasons over time (-0.020 days yr(-1)) or in response to sea surface temperature (SST) (-0.272 days degrees C-1) between 1952 and 2015. However, marked between-year variation in timing observed in resident species and some Pelecaniformes and Suliformes (cormorants, gannets and boobies) may imply that timing, in some cases, is affected by unmeasured environmental conditions. This limited temperature-mediated plasticity of reproductive timing in seabirds potentially makes these top predators highly vulnerable to future mismatch with lower-trophic-level resources(2).