Uncertainties of wild-land fires emission in AQMEII phase 2 case study
Uncertainties of wild-land fires emission in AQMEII phase 2 case study
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DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.01.068
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发表时间：
2015-08-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Hakkarainen, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Soares, J.;Sofiev, M.;Hakkarainen, J.
本文讨论了 AQMEII-II 案例研究中使用的荒地火灾排放估算的主要不确定性。 2010 年欧亚大陆夏季火灾季节的野地火灾颗粒物排放量由野地火灾综合系统 (IS4FIRES) 生成。排放计算程序包括两个步骤：根据Terra和Aqua卫星上的MODIS仪器观测到的单个火灾的辐射能量进行自下而上的排放汇编；基于观测结果和模拟结果之间的比较对排放因子进行自上而下的校准。该方法继承了各种不确定性，这些不确定性源于火灾信息的不完善、逆问题解决方案的不准确以及火灾描述的简化。这些是针对 2010 年欧亚火灾进行的分析。得出的结论是，总排放量可能被高估高达 50%，且个别火灾的排放精度可能会在很大范围内变化。讨论了新 IS4FIRESv2 产品和火灾解决模型在 2010 年事件中的应用的初步结果。结果表明，新的排放估算具有相似的模式，但低于 IS4FIRESv1 值。 (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. 保留所有权利。
The paper discusses the main uncertainties of wild-land fire emission estimates used in the AQMEII-II case study. The wild-land fire emission of particulate matter for the summer fire season of 2010 in Eurasia was generated by the Integrated System for wild-land Fires (IS4FIRES). The emission calculation procedure included two steps: bottom-up emission compilation from radiative energy of individual fires observed by MODIS instrument on-board of Terra and Aqua satellites; and top-down calibration of emission factors based on the comparison between observations and modelled results. The approach inherits various uncertainties originating from imperfect information on fires, inaccuracies of the inverse problem solution, and simplifications in the fire description. These are analysed in regard to the Eurasian fires in 2010. It is concluded that the total emission is likely to be over-estimated by up to 50% with individual-fire emission accuracy likely to vary in a wide range. The first results of the new IS4FIRESv2 products and fire-resolving modelling are discussed in application to the 2010 events. It is shown that the new emission estimates have similar patterns but are lower than the IS4FIRESv1 values. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.