Financing National Health Insurance: Challenge of Fast Population Aging
Financing National Health Insurance: Challenge of Fast Population Aging
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DOI：
10.6277/ter.2015.432.1
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发表时间：
2015-06
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Minchung Hsu;Pei-Ju Liao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Minchung Hsu;Pei-Ju Liao
本文研究了人口快速老龄化对国家健康保险计划融资的影响，正如许多新兴工业化国家 (NIC) 所预期和观察到的那样。采用具有内生工作和储蓄决策的动态随机一般均衡模型来量化影响。我们选择从1995年开始实行全民健康保险（NHI）的台湾地区作为例子进行分析，20年内老年人口比例将翻倍。我们的研究结果表明，如果当前人口老龄化趋势得不到改善，2050年将需要额外征收16%的劳动所得税。此外，还讨论了医疗价格上涨的影响。我们发现，如果实际医疗价格的年增长率高于生产率增长率2%，国民健康保险将不可持续。最后，讨论了通过不同方法延迟退休和国民健康保险融资的财政和福利影响。
This paper studies the impact of rapid population aging on financing a national health insurance program, as anticipated and observed in many newly industrialized countries (NICs). A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with endogenous working and saving decisions is employed to quantify the impact. Taiwan, which has been implementing its National Health Insurance (NHI) since 1995 and whose elderly population ratio will double within 20 years, is selected as an example for our analysis. Our results suggest that an additional 16 percent labor income tax will be required in 2050 if the current trend of population aging cannot be improved. Moreover, the impact of medical price inflation is also discussed. We find that the NHI would be unsustainable if the annual growth rate of real medical prices is 2 percent higher than productivity growth. Finally, the fiscal and welfare effects of deferring retirement and financing NHI through different methods are discussed.