Challenges in control of COVID-19: short doubling times and long delay to effect of interventions †
Challenges in control of COVID-19: short doubling times and long delay to effect of interventions †
复制标题
控制 COVID-19 的挑战：倍增时间短，干预措施效果延迟长 †
DOI：
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
I. Hall
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Pellis;F. Scarabel;H. Stage;C. Overton;Lauren H K Chappell;K. Lythgoe;E. Fearon;E. Bennett;Jacob Curran;Rajenki Das;M. Fyles;H. Lewkowicz;Xiaoxi Pang;Bindu Vekaria;L. Webb;T. House;I. Hall
COVID-19不受约束的增长率对于衡量干预措施的影响、评估最坏情况以及校准政策规划的数学模型至关重要。然而，稳健的估计是有限的，科学的重点是对时间不敏感的基本再生数R 0。通过使用多个国家、数据流和方法，我们一致估计，欧洲COVID-19病例在不受限制的情况下每三天翻一番，而物理距离干预措施的影响通常在实施后约9天出现，在此期间病例增长了8倍。快速增长和长时间的检测延迟相结合，比单独的大R 0值更好地解释了各国反应的困难，并警告不要过快放松物理距离措施。检测和追踪是缩短这种拖延的根本，从而防止案件在不被注意的情况下升级。
The unconstrained growth rate of COVID-19 is crucial for measuring the impact of interventions, assessing worst-case scenarios, and calibrating mathematical models for policy planning. However, robust estimates are limited, with scientific focus on the time-insensitive basic reproduction number R 0 . Using multiple countries, data streams and methods, we consistently estimate that European COVID-19 cases doubled every three days when unconstrained, with the impact of physical distancing interventions typically seen about nine days after implementation, during which time cases grew eight-fold. The combination of fast growth and long detection delays explains the struggle in countries’ response better than large values of R 0 alone, and warns against relaxing physical distancing measures too quickly. Testing and tracing are fundamental in shortening such delays, thus preventing cases from escalating unnoticed.
控制 Covid-19 的挑战：倍增时间短，干预措施效果延迟长
DOI：
10.48550/arxiv.2004.00117
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
--
影响因子：
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作者：
Pellis L
通讯作者：
Pellis L