Sustaining the Peace: Determinants of Civil War Recurrence
Sustaining the Peace: Determinants of Civil War Recurrence
复制标题
维持和平：内战复发的决定因素
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Mehmet Gurses
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Quinn;T. D. Mason;Mehmet Gurses
在1944年至1997年期间开始和结束的所有内战中，有一半以上的内战之后至少发生了一次，如果不是更多的话。我们提出了一个模型来解释内战的特点和战后环境使内战或多或少可能复发。我们用1944年至1997年之间开始和结束的内战数据来测试这个模型。调查结果表明，在叛军获胜和维持和平部队支持的和平协定之后，内战不太可能再次发生。战后经济的发展也降低了内战复发的概率，和平能够维持的时间越长，内战复发的可能性就越小。无论前一场战争是否基于种族，无论它是分离主义还是革命，这些影响都是存在的。
Over half of all civil wars that began and ended between 1944 and 1997 were followed by at least one if not more episodes of civil war. We present a model to explain which characteristics of a civil war and the post-war environment make civil war more or less likely to recur. We test this model with data on civil wars that began and ended between 1944 and 1997. Findings suggest that civil wars are less likely to recur following rebel victories and peace agreements supported by peacekeeping forces. Post-war economic development also reduces the probability of civil war recurrence, and the longer the peace can be sustained, the less likely civil war is to recur. These effects hold regardless of whether the previous war was ethnically based or not, and whether it was secessionist or revolutionary.