Future range dynamics of the red alga Capreolia implexa in native and invaded regions: contrasting predictions from species distribution models versus physiological knowledge
Future range dynamics of the red alga Capreolia implexa in native and invaded regions: contrasting predictions from species distribution models versus physiological knowledge
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DOI：
10.1007/s10530-019-02186-4
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发表时间：
2020-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Philipp Laeseke;B. Martínez;A. Mansilla;K. Bischof
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Philipp Laeseke;B. Martínez;A. Mansilla;K. Bischof
相关物种分布模型是一种广泛应用的预测潜在物种分布范围的方法，但在整合物种的基本生态位方面存在局限性。因此，他们可能会低估合适的范围，但包括生理信息可以提高预测的准确性，并帮助识别例如范围限制的机制。然而，这两种方法，从相关的以及生理调查的结果是罕见的，特别是在海藻的研究。在这里，我们提供的结果，从这两种方法来预测合适的栖息地范围ofCapreolia implexa（红藻）在其原生范围（澳大利亚和新西兰）和入侵范围（智利）在目前和未来的气候情景（2100年，RCP 2.6和RCP 8.5）。我们使用Maxent建模技术和来自温度耐受性实验（2-20 °C）的生理知识进行热生态位估计。从这两种方法的结果表明更大的适合栖息地范围在目前的条件下，这两个地区比目前占用。原生范围内的非生物范围限制导致Maxent低估了合适的温度范围（这里的温度下限= 8.3 °C）。基于实验室温度耐受性实验的预测表明，在较冷的地区（这里的温度下限= 6.6 ± 0.4 °C）有额外的合适栖息地。在未来的气候条件下，本地和入侵的范围应该向南移动，这将导致在本地范围内的适当栖息地的整体损失。像这样，rcp 8.5的条件应该将原生范围减少到当前范围的50%。我们证明了相关SDM建模的局限性，生活在大陆边缘的物种，生理实验可以帮助确定物种的生态位超越相关分析，范围预测提供有价值的信息。此外，我们还为入侵管理和保护提供了有价值的见解。图形摘要
AbstractCorrelative species distribution modelling is a widely used method to predict potential species ranges but can suffer from limitations in integrating species’ fundamental niches. Therefore, they might underestimate suitable ranges, but including physiological information can improve accuracy of predictions and help identify mechanisms of e.g. range limitation. However, approaches using both, results from correlative as well as physiological investigations are rare, especially in research on seaweeds. Here, we provide results from both approaches to predict the suitable habitat range ofCapreolia implexa(Rhodophyta) in its native range (Australia and New Zealand) and invaded range (Chile) under present and future climate scenarios (year 2100, rcp 2.6 and rcp 8.5). We used the Maxent modelling technique and physiological knowledge from a temperature tolerance experiment (2–20 °C) for thermal niche estimation. Results from both approaches suggest larger suitable habitat ranges under present day conditions for both regions than currently occupied. Abiotic range limitation in the native range led to underestimation of the suitable temperature range by Maxent (here lower temperature limit = 8.3 °C). Predictions based on the laboratory temperature tolerance experiment suggest additional suitable habitat in colder regions (here lower temperature limit = 6.6 ± 0.4 °C). Under future climate conditions, both native and invaded ranges should shift southward, which will lead to an overall loss of suitable habitat in the native range. Like that, rcp 8.5 conditions should reduce the native range to 50% of the present-day extent. We demonstrate the limitation of correlative SDM modelling for species that live on continental margins and that physiological experiments can help to identify species’ niches beyond correlative analyses, providing valuable information for range projections. Furthermore, we provide valuable insights relevant for both invasion management and conservation.Graphic abstract