Context Counts: The Election Cycle, Development, and the Nature of Economic Voting
Context Counts: The Election Cycle, Development, and the Nature of Economic Voting
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背景很重要：选举周期、发展和经济投票的性质
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Ryan E. Carlin
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文献类型：
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作者：
M. Singer;Ryan E. Carlin
经济看法影响现任选民的支持率，但关于选民是关注过去还是未来的表现，以及他们主要从社会取向还是利己主义角度看待经济，争论仍在持续。我们的理论是，经济投票的性质取决于背景。来自18个拉美国家(1995-2009年)的证据表明，预期投票在选举周期的早期占主导地位，但随着现任总统记录的发展，追溯投票获得了吸引力。除了最不发达国家，选民们更重视国家经济，而不是个人财务。因此，选民所处的环境不仅影响经济投票的程度，而且影响投票的性质。
Economic perceptions affect incumbent support, but debate persists over whether voters focus on past or future performance and whether they view the economy in primarily sociotropic or egotropic terms. We theorize the nature of economic voting depends on the context. Evidence from 18 Latin American countries (1995–2009) suggest prospective voting predominates early in the election cycle, but retrospective voting gains traction as the incumbent’s record develops. Voters emphasize the national economy over personal finances except in the least developed countries. Thus the contexts in which voters are embedded not only affect the degree of economic voting but also its very nature.