Aggregation of carbon dioxide sequestration storage assessment units
Aggregation of carbon dioxide sequestration storage assessment units
复制标题
二氧化碳封存封存评估单元的汇总
DOI：
10.1007/s00477-013-0718-x
复制
发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
L. J. Drew
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Blondes;J. Schuenemeyer;R. Olea;L. J. Drew
根据 2007 年《能源独立与安全法案》的规定，美国地质调查局目前正在对二氧化碳 (CO2) 储存资源进行全国性评估。排放前在地下盐层中捕获和储存二氧化碳是减少温室气体排放和全球气候变化负面影响的一种潜在方法。与许多大规模资源评估一样，所调查的区域被分为更小、更易于管理的储存评估单元（SAU），这些单元必须在正确传播到流域、区域和国家尺度的不确定性的情况下进行聚合。聚合方法需要两种类型的数据：每个 SAU 的存储资源的边际概率分布，以及通过专家启发获得的描述 SAU 对之间相互依赖关系的相关矩阵。依赖性的产生是因为地质类比、评估方法和评估者经常重叠。相关矩阵用于使用 Cholesky 分解在代表单独评估的 SAU 的经验边际分布之间引入等级相关性。本手稿提出了一种针对二氧化碳封存评估固有的相关性和依赖性而定制的概率聚合方法。聚合结果必须在流域、区域和国家尺度上呈现。将定义一个大相关矩阵并将子集用于不同尺度的单阶段方法与创建新相关矩阵以聚合中间结果的多阶段方法进行比较。尽管单阶段方法需要确定更多的相关系数，但它捕获了不同盆地中相似单元之间的地质依赖性，并且与多阶段方法相比，它对低相关系数的波动不太敏感。因此，一个单阶段相关矩阵的子集用于聚合到流域、区域和国家尺度。
The U.S. Geological Survey is currently conducting a national assessment of carbon dioxide (CO2) storage resources, mandated by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Pre-emission capture and storage of CO2 in subsurface saline formations is one potential method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the negative impact of global climate change. Like many large-scale resource assessments, the area under investigation is split into smaller, more manageable storage assessment units (SAUs), which must be aggregated with correctly propagated uncertainty to the basin, regional, and national scales. The aggregation methodology requires two types of data: marginal probability distributions of storage resource for each SAU, and a correlation matrix obtained by expert elicitation describing interdependencies between pairs of SAUs. Dependencies arise because geologic analogs, assessment methods, and assessors often overlap. The correlation matrix is used to induce rank correlation, using a Cholesky decomposition, among the empirical marginal distributions representing individually assessed SAUs. This manuscript presents a probabilistic aggregation method tailored to the correlations and dependencies inherent to a CO2 storage assessment. Aggregation results must be presented at the basin, regional, and national scales. A single stage approach, in which one large correlation matrix is defined and subsets are used for different scales, is compared to a multiple stage approach, in which new correlation matrices are created to aggregate intermediate results. Although the single-stage approach requires determination of significantly more correlation coefficients, it captures geologic dependencies among similar units in different basins and it is less sensitive to fluctuations in low correlation coefficients than the multiple stage approach. Thus, subsets of one single-stage correlation matrix are used to aggregate to basin, regional, and national scales.