Modeling occupant-level injury severity: An application to large-truck crashes.
Modeling occupant-level injury severity: An application to large-truck crashes.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.aap.2011.02.021
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发表时间：
2011-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Xiaoyu Zhu;S. Srinivasan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xiaoyu Zhu;S. Srinivasan
迄今为止，大多数伤害严重性分析主要集中在对任何碰撞中最严重的伤害进行建模，尽管相当一部分碰撞涉及多辆车和多人。在这项研究中，我们提出了一个广泛的探索性分析，强调最高的伤害严重程度不一定是任何碰撞的整体严重程度的综合指标。随后，我们提出了一个面板，hetroskedastic ordered-probit模型，同时分析受伤的严重程度，所有的人参与了碰撞。该模型估计的背景下，大型卡车碰撞。结果表明，人，司机，车辆和碰撞特征的人参与大型卡车碰撞的伤害严重程度的强烈影响。例如，几个驾驶员行为特征（如使用非法药物，DUI和注意力不集中）被发现是损伤严重程度的统计学显著预测因素。安全气囊的可用性和安全带的使用也被发现与在与大卡车相撞的情况下对汽车驾驶员和汽车乘客的较轻伤害有关。汽车驾驶员对车辆和道路的熟悉程度对汽车驾驶员和乘客都很重要。最后，该模型还表明，在车辆内的所有人的伤害倾向之间的车内相关性（常见的车辆特定的未观察到的因素的影响）的强烈存在。
Most of the injury-severity analyses to date have focused primarily on modeling the most-severe injury of any crash, although a substantial fraction of crashes involve multiple vehicles and multiple persons. In this study, we present an extensive exploratory analysis that highlights that the highest injury severity is not necessarily the comprehensive indicator of the overall severity of any crash. Subsequently, we present a panel, hetroskedastic ordered-probit model to simultaneously analyze the injury severities of all persons involved in a crash. The models are estimated in the context of large-truck crashes. The results indicate strong effects of person-, driver-, vehicle-, and crash-characteristics on the injury severities of persons involved in large-truck crashes. For example, several driver behavior characteristics (such as use of illegal drugs, DUI, and inattention) were found to be statistically significant predictors of injury severity. The availability of airbags and the use of seat-belts are also found to be associated with less-severe injuries to car-drivers and car-passengers in the event of crashes with large trucks. Car drivers’ familiarity with the vehicle and the roadway are also important for both the car drivers and passengers. Finally, the models also indicate the strong presence of intra-vehicle correlations (effect of common vehicle-specific unobserved factors) among the injury propensities of all persons within a vehicle.