Prediction of cancer incidence in the Nordic countries:: empirical comparison of different approaches
Prediction of cancer incidence in the Nordic countries:: empirical comparison of different approaches
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DOI：
10.1002/sim.1481
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发表时间：
2003-09-15
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Haldorsen, T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Moller, B;Fekjær, H;Haldorsen, T
预测未来癌症病例数量引起了社会的极大兴趣。经典方法是使用年龄-时期-队列模型来预测癌症发病率。我们使用 1958-1997 年北欧国家癌症登记处的数据对该模型的不同版本进行了实证比较。我们在丹麦、芬兰、挪威和瑞典的 20 个站点针对不同性别应用了 15 种不同的方法。计算了这 160 个地点、性别和国家组合的观察病例数和预测病例数之间相对差异的中位绝对值。对未来 10 年的预测中位数在 10.4% 到 15.3% 之间变化，对 20 年的预测中位数在 15.1% 到 32.0% 之间变化。我们有四个主要结论：（i）预测当前趋势比假设未来利率等于当前利率更有效； (ii) 基于乘法 APC 模型的方法经常高估癌症病例数，因为癌症病例数随时间呈指数增长，但使用幂函数来平稳这种增长可以改善预测； (iii) 仅预测前 10 年之后趋势的一半也给出了更好的长期预测； (iv) 强调过去十年趋势的方法似乎比包含早期趋势的方法表现更好。版权所有 (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.
Prediction of the future number of cancer cases is of great interest to society. The classical approach is to use the age-period-cohort model for making cancer incidence predictions. We made an empirical comparison of different versions of this model, using data from cancer registries in the Nordic countries for the period 1958-1997. We have applied 15 different methods to 20 sites for each sex in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Median absolute value of the relative difference between observed and predicted numbers of cases for these 160 combinations of site, sex and country was calculated. The medians varied between 10.4 per cent and 15.3 per cent in predictions 10 years ahead, and between 15.1 per cent and 32.0 per cent for 20 year predictions. We have four main conclusions: (i) projecting current trends worked better than assuming that future rates are equal to present rates; (ii) the method based on the multiplicative APC model often overestimated the number of cancer cases due to its exponential growth over time, but using a power function to level off this growth improved the predictions; (iii) projecting only half of the trend after the first 10 years also gave better long-term predictions; (iv) methods that emphasize trends in the last decade seem to perform better than those that include earlier time trends. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.