Global estimates of water withdrawals and availability under current and future "business-as-usual" conditions
Global estimates of water withdrawals and availability under current and future "business-as-usual" conditions
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DOI：
10.1623/hysj.48.3.339.45278
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发表时间：
2003-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Siebert, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alcamo, J;Döll, P;Siebert, S
新的全球模型为生成有关世界水资源状况的量化信息提供了机会。在这里，WaterGAP 2模型用于计算有关水资源可用性、取水量和流域尺度上的其他指标的全球综合估计。在将该模型应用于当前的全球水资源状况时，发现世界河流流域约有24%的取水量与可利用量之比大于0.4，一些专家认为这是“严重水资源压力”的粗略指标;预计这种压力对发展中国家的影响比工业化国家更大。在“一切照旧”的情况下，人口、经济和技术趋势持续到2025年，由于水需求饱和和用水效率提高，预计世界41%的河流流域地区的取水量将稳定或减少。其他地方的水资源增长是因为人口和经济增长将导致对水的需求增加，而这超过了假定的水资源利用效率的提高。不确定性分析表明，这些估计数的不确定性可能具有很强的地理变异性。
New global models provide the opportunity to generate quantitative information about the world water situation. Here the WaterGAP 2 model is used to compute globally comprehensive estimates about water availability, water withdrawals, and other indicators on the river-basin scale. In applying the model to the current global water situation, it was found that about 24% of world river basin area has a withdrawal to availability ratio greater than 0.4, which some experts consider to be a rough indication of "severe water stress"; the impacts of this stress are expected to be stronger in developing countries than in industrialized ones. Under a "business-as-usual" scenario of continuing demographic, economic and technological trends up to 2025, water withdrawals are expected to stabilize or decrease in 41% of world river basin areas because of the saturation of water needs and improvement in water-use efficiency. Withdrawals grow elsewhere because population and economic growth will lead to rising demand for water, and this outweighs the assumed improvements in water-use efficiency. An uncertainty analysis showed that the uncertainty of these estimates is likely to have a strong geographic variability.