Global overview on grid-parity
Global overview on grid-parity
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DOI：
10.1002/pip.1254
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Gerlach, Alexander
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Breyer, Christian;Gerlach, Alexander
并网平价是光伏进一步扩散的一个非常重要的里程碑。提出了一种基于平准化电价（LCOE）与经验曲线方法相结合的电网平价模型。给出了模型的相关假设，并详细讨论了模型的关键驱动力。分析结果显示了全球150多个国家和305个细分市场，占世界人口的98.0%和全球国内生产总值的99.7%。光伏产业的高增长率使得LCOE快速降低。化石燃料资源的枯竭和减缓气候变化迫使社会将这些影响内化，并为可持续能源技术铺平道路。第一个电网奇偶事件正在发生。2010年代的特点是在世界上大多数地区持续进行电网平价事件，达到约占全球电力市场总量75-90%的可寻址市场。因此，将需要新的政治框架来使社会利益最大化。与此同时，光伏产业将迎来下一个里程碑——燃料平价。总之，光伏正在成为一项极具竞争力的能源技术。版权所有：John Wiley & Sons， Ltd
Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. A grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given, and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for more than 150 countries and a total of 305 market segments all over the world, representing 98.0% of world population and 99.7% of global gross domestic product. High PV industry growth rates enable a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events occur right now. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of about 75-90% of total global electricity market. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology. Copyright (C) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.