Bulk models of solar radiation at sea
Bulk models of solar radiation at sea
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DOI：
10.1002/qj.49711447909
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发表时间：
1988
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
F. Dobson;Stuart D. Smith
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Dobson;Stuart D. Smith
为了提高气候预测，我们测试了各种模式估计太阳辐射在海上标准气象地面观测对辐射测量在几个海洋气象站和在近海岛屿气象站的长系列。广泛使用的Budyko公式被发现在估计长期平均日射量时误差高达32%，并且在再现季节变化时误差更大。各种模式估计太阳辐射从太阳高度和每小时的云量和类型，使用经验或简单的物理公式，进行了评估。这些模型估计平均日射量没有一个比现有的公式更好，该公式仅依赖于中午太阳高度和每日平均云量，尽管每小时模型确实更好地再现了季节，月和日变化。没有一个使用标准地面观测的公式能够达到气候预测所需的长期平均日射量10 Wm − 2的精度。
With a view to improving climate prediction, we test various models for estimating solar radiation at sea from standard meteorological surface observations against long series of radiation measurements at several Ocean Weather Stations and at an offshore island meteorological station. The widely-used Budyko formula is found to err by up to 32% in estimating long-term mean insolation, and has even larger errors in reproducing seasonal variations. Various models which estimate solar radiation from solar elevation and from hourly cloud amount and type, using empirical or simple physical formulae, are evaluated. None of these models estimate mean insolation better than an existing formula which relies only on noon solar elevation and daily mean cloud amount, although the hourly models do reproduce seasonal, monthly and daily variations better. None of the formulae using standard surface observations is able to achieve the 10 Wm−2 accuracy in long-term mean insolation which is required for climate prediction.