Second edition
Second edition
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发表时间：
2001
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通讯作者：
Hendrik Van;den Berg
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作者：
Hendrik Van;den Berg
本文介绍了正在进行的研究项目“监测未来”的信息。该计划旨在：(1) 监测美国中学生和其他年轻人的药物使用情况和潜在的解释因素； (2) 区分不同类型的药物使用正在发生三种不同类型的变化——成熟的、历史的和/或队列中的哪一种； (3) 研究与这些不同类型的药物使用变化相关的原因、后果和成熟模式。每年都会对 435 所学校的约 50,000 名中学生进行该计划的调查。对毕业班的后续调查产生了约 11,000 名年龄在 19 至 32 岁之间的受访者的年轻人样本。本文分为两部分。第 1 部分包含理论背景和概念框架，第 2 部分详细阐述了十个目标及其基本原理，并概述了迄今为止的进展。一些目标包括监测 8、10、12 年级、年轻人以及 34 岁和 40 岁年龄段的药物使用情况和可能的解释；区分时期、年龄和队列效应；解释长期趋势和群体差异；评估吸毒的后果；研究频繁或重度用户；研究各种代表性不足的群体；以及对该领域的方法、政策和其他贡献。 （包含 527
This paper presents information from the ongoing research program, Monitoring the Future. The program is designed to: (1) monitor drug use and potential explanatory factors among American secondary school students, and other young adults; (2) distinguish which of three different kinds of change--maturational, historical, and/or cohort are occurring for various types of drug use; and (3) study causes, consequences, and maturational patterns associated with these different types of changes in drug use. Some 50,000 secondary school students in 435 schools are surveyed annually for the program. A follow-up survey of graduated classes yields a young adult sample of about 11,000 respondents in the age range of 19 to 32. The paper is divided into two parts. Part 1 contains the theoretical background and conceptual framework, and Part 2 elaborates on the ten objectives, their rationale, and presents a synopsis of progress to date. Some objectives include monitoring drug use and potential explanations in grades 8, 10, 12, among young adults and with ages 34 and 40; distinguishing period, age, and cohort effects; explaining secular trends and cohort differences; assessing the consequences of drug use; studying frequent or heavy-users; studying various under-represented groups; and the methodological, policy and other contributions to the field. (Contains 527