Branching points for transition pathways: assessing responses of actors to challenges on pathways to a low carbon future
Branching points for transition pathways: assessing responses of actors to challenges on pathways to a low carbon future
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.030
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Thornton, Judith
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Foxon, Timothy J.;Pearson, Peter J. G.;Thornton, Judith
本文描述了到2050年英国低碳电力未来的一系列过渡途径的分支点的初步分析。正如本特刊的其他论文所述，我们正在探索和分析一套核心转型路径，其基础是市场行为者、政府行为者和民间社会行为者的“逻辑”分别占主导地位的替代治理模式。这种核心途径分析通过分析途径内和途径间的分支点来增强，这表明不同逻辑之间的竞争如何在关键决策点发挥作用。分支点被定义为关键的决策点，在此点上，行为者为应对内部或外部压力或触发因素而作出的选择，决定了是否以及以何种方式走上这条道路。通过项目和利益相关者研讨会，并借鉴对能源系统过渡中过去分支点的行为者选择和反应的分析，确定了我们三个核心过渡途径的一组初始分支点。在这些分支点确定了行为者的潜在反应，并为主要行为者制定了风险缓解战略，以加强这一途径，以及为行为者提供脱离这一途径的机会。(C)2012爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
This paper describes initial analysis of branching points on a set of transition pathways to a UK low carbon electricity future by 2050. As described in other papers in this special issue, we are exploring and analysing a set of core transition pathways, based on alternative governance patterns in which the 'logics' of market actors, government actors and civil society actors, respectively dominate. This core pathway analysis is enhanced by analyses of branching points within and across the pathways, which informs how competition between different logics plays out at key decision points. Branching points are defined as key decision points at which choices made by actors, in response to internal or external stresses or triggers, determine whether and in what ways the pathway is followed. A set of initial branching points for our three core transition pathways is identified through project and stakeholder workshops, and drawing on analysis of actors' choices and responses at past branching points in energy system transitions. The potential responses of the actors are identified at these branching points, and risk mitigation strategies are formulated for the dominant actors to reinforce that pathway, as well as opportunities for actors to move away from the pathway. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.