Teleconnected influence of tropical Northwest Pacific sea surface temperature on interannual variability of autumn precipitation in Southwest China
Teleconnected influence of tropical Northwest Pacific sea surface temperature on interannual variability of autumn precipitation in Southwest China
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热带西北太平洋海表温度对西南地区秋季降水年际变化的遥相关影响
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-015-2490-8
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发表时间：
2015-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Huang Gang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang Lin;Chen Wen;Zhou Wen;Huang Gang
分析了西南地区秋季降水的年际变化特征及热带西北太平洋海温的可能影响。统计分析表明，西南偏西降水与同期数值预报海温呈负相关。数值预报海温偏暖促进了西南偏干，这与三个动力过程有关：（1）数值预报海温偏暖激发了南海异常气旋，使南海异常气旋与气候流方向相反，减弱了数值预报水汽的输送; (2)暖的NWP SST加强了沿着赤道印度洋的西风带。因此，大部分的水分被输送到海洋大陆，因此，从印度洋到西南偏西的向极气流携带的水分变得更弱。(3)暖的海温引起异常的上升和高层辐散，其中一条路径的流出西北方向和西南偏西地区的会聚，这导致补偿沉降的西南偏西地区。数值试验的结果，迫使SST异常在NWP单独，被发现重现所观察到的大气响应，表明NWP SST对SWC降水的影响是物理的，并在SWC的水分条件触发主要是由NWP SST的波动。由于夏季至秋季西北太平洋海温的持续异常，前一个夏季西北太平洋海温可以作为西南太平洋秋季干旱的预报因子。此外，自1994年以来，西南偏南地区的秋季降水量显著减少，这可能是由于近几十年来长期偏暖的NWP SST所维持的。
The interannual variation of autumn precipitation in Southwest China (SWC) and the possible influence of tropical Northwest Pacific (NWP) sea surface temperature (SST) are investigated. Statistical analysis shows that SWC precipitation is negatively correlated with concurrent NWP SST. The warm NWP SST that promotes dry conditions in SWC is linked to three dynamical processes: (1) Warm NWP SST excites an anomalous cyclone over the South China Sea, which is oriented against the climatological flow, weakening the transportation of moisture from the NWP. (2) Warm NWP SST strengthens the westerlies along the equatorial Indian Ocean. As a result, most of the moisture is transported over the maritime continent and thus the poleward flow carrying moisture from the Indian Ocean into SWC becomes weaker. (3) Warm NWP SST provokes anomalous ascent and upper-level divergence in situ, with one path of the outflow heading northwestward and converging over SWC, which induces compensating subsidence over the SWC region. The results of numerical experiments, forced by SST anomalies in the NWP alone, are found to reproduce the observed atmospheric response, indicating that the impact of NWP SST on SWC precipitation is physical and that the moisture conditions over SWC are triggered primarily by the fluctuation of NWP SST. Due to the persistent SST anomaly over NWP from summer to autumn, the NWP SST in the preceding summer can be considered a predictor for autumn drought in SWC. Furthermore, autumn precipitation in SWC has experienced a significant decrease since 1994, probably maintained by the long-lasting warm NWP SST in recent decades.
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