Reconstructing and analyzing the traffic flow during evacuation in Hurricane Irma (2017)
Reconstructing and analyzing the traffic flow during evacuation in Hurricane Irma (2017)
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.trd.2021.102788
复制
发表时间：
2021-05
影响因子：
7.6
通讯作者：
Kairui Feng;N. Lin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kairui Feng;N. Lin
飓风疏散一直是困扰当地政府的难题。2017年的飓风“厄玛”创造了佛罗里达历史上最大规模的疏散行动，强制疏散令涉及约650万人，估计动用了400万辆疏散车辆。交通堵塞出现在佛罗里达州中部，并迅速蔓延到整个州。要了解飓风疏散过程，交通流量的时空演变是一个关键的信息，但它通常是不完全观察。基于博弈论，利用现有的主要公路交通观测数据，对“伊尔玛”期间佛罗里达州所有公路的交通流进行重构。重建的交通状况与动态模型模拟的交通状况进行了比较，而重建模型的计算成本要低得多。智能手机数据的验证进一步证实了重建模型捕捉到了真实的疏散过程的交通条件。重建后的数据显示，佛罗里达州的基韦斯特、迈阿密、坦帕、奥兰多和杰克逊维尔5个代表性城市的疏散率分别约为90.1%、38.7%、52.6%、22.1%和7%。来自坦帕和迈阿密的高峰疏散交通流量几乎同时抵达奥兰多地区，引发了整个州的灾难性拥堵。此外，飓风“厄玛”的疏散量大于根据以往事件和调查数据开发的疏散需求模型预测的疏散量。本文完成的疏散交通流再分析为研究疏散需求和制定疏散管理政策奠定了基础。
Hurricane evacuation has long been a difficult problem perplexing local government. Hurricane Irma in 2017 created the most extensive scale of evacuation in Florida’s history, involving about 6.5 million people in a mandatory evacuation order and an estimated 4 million evacuation vehicles. Traffic jams emerged in mid-Florida and rapidly spread to involve the entire state. To understand the hurricane evacuation process, the spatial and temporal evolution of the traffic flow is a critical piece of information, but it is usually not fully observed. Based on game theory, this paper employs the available traffic observation of main highways to reconstruct the traffic flow on all highways in Florida during Irma. The reconstructed traffic conditions compare well with those simulated by dynamic models while the reconstruction model is computationally much cheaper to use. Validation with smartphone data further confirms that the reconstruction model captures the traffic conditions for real evacuation processes. The reconstructed data show that the evacuation rates for 5 representative cities -- Key West, Miami, Tampa, Orlando, and Jacksonville-- in Florida were about 90.1%, 38.7%, 52.6%, 22.1%, and 7%, respectively. The peak evacuation traffic flows from Tampa and Miami arrived in the Orlando region at almost the same time, triggering the catastrophic congestion through the entire state. Also, the evacuation for Hurricane Irma was greater than that predicted by an evacuation demand model developed based on previous event and survey data. The detailed evacuation traffic flow reanalysis accomplished in this article lays a foundation for studying evacuation demand as well as developing evacuation management policies.