Climate change, water availability and future cereal production in China
Climate change, water availability and future cereal production in China
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气候变化、水资源供应和中国未来谷物生产
DOI：
10.1016/j.agee.2009.08.015
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发表时间：
2010-01-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Li, Yan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xiong, Wei;Holman, Ian;Li, Yan
区域气候模型的气候情景被用来驱动以IPCC A2和B2社会经济发展路径为基础的作物和水模拟模型，以探索2020年代和2020年代中国农业的水资源可用性。根据农业和非农业用水需求以及当前和计划扩大灌区的情况，在流域和省级范围内审查了各种可用水衡量标准。目的是了解不同驱动因素对未来可用水的影响，以支持中国的粮食生产。水文模拟的结果是，随着未来降水量的增加，总可用水量会有中等到较大的增加。全国和大多数流域的总用水需求增加，但农业用水份额下降，主要原因是来自工业、家庭和市政部门的竞争。作物模拟显示灌溉用水量有中等到较大的增长，这被发现对气候情景中的日降水量特征高度敏感。与社会经济发展的作用相比，气候变化对农业用水的影响很小。这项研究确定了流域和省一级影响的显著空间差异。总体而言，中国南部的农业用水有所下降，而中国北部的农业用水保持稳定。气候变化和社会经济发展的综合影响减少了未来灌区的产量，特别是灌溉水稻的面积。总体而言，研究结果表明，中国未来几十年将出现农业用水不足，这主要是由于非农业用水需求的增加，这将对农业生产和水管理的适应战略和政策产生重大影响。(C)2009爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
Climate scenarios from a regional climate model are used to drive crop and water simulation models underpinned by the IPCC A2 and B2 socio-economic development pathways to explore water availability for agriculture in China in the 2020s and 2040s. Various measures of water availability are examined at river basin and provincial scale in relation to agricultural and non-agricultural water demand and current and planned expansions to the area under irrigation. The objectives are to understand the influences of different drivers on future water availability to support China's food production. Hydrological simulations produce moderate to large increases in total water availability in response to increases in future precipitation. Total water demand increases nationally and in most basins, but with a decreasing share for agriculture due primarily to competition from industrial, domestic and Municipal sectors. Crop simulations exhibit moderate to large increases in irrigation water demand which is found to be highly sensitive to the characteristics of daily precipitation in the climate scenarios. The impacts of climate change on water availability for agriculture are small compared to the role of socio-economic development.The study identifies significant spatial differences in impacts at the river basin and provincial level. In broad terms water availability for agriculture declines in southern China and remains stable in northern China. The combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic development produce decreases in future irrigation areas, especially the area of irrigated paddy rice. Overall, the results suggest that there will be insufficient water for agriculture in China in the coming decades, due primarily to increases in water demand for non-agricultural uses, which will have significant implications for adaptation strategies and policies for agricultural production and water management. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.