Climatic variability and changing reproductive goals in Sub-Saharan Africa
Climatic variability and changing reproductive goals in Sub-Saharan Africa
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.03.011
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发表时间：
2019-07-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Strube, Johann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Eissler, Sarah;Thiede, Brian C.;Strube, Johann
利用来自18个撒哈拉以南非洲国家的40轮人口与健康调查数据，结合高分辨率的历史气候记录，我们分析了气候变化与育龄妇女生育目标之间的关系。我们发现，总体而言，暴露在高于平均温度的女性报告理想家庭规模较低，希望第一个或第二个孩子的可能性降低。结果表明，暴露于降水异常在12个月之前的人口与健康调查与理想的家庭规模显着减少，但更长的60个月以上的平均降水量与理想的家庭规模的增加，不寻常的降水的影响是空的妇女的生育偏好在短期和长期的时期。进一步的分析表明，这种关联在按均等、教育、居住在农村或城市地区以及地区定义的亚人口中各不相同。总的来说，我们的研究结果表明，女性暴露在不利的环境条件下，即异常炎热或干燥的咒语，将减少他们理想的家庭规模和他们对再生一个孩子的偏好。然而，在某些情况下，在有利的环境条件下，生育目标也可能下降，这可能是由于妇女及其配偶的劳动力需求增加。观察到的气候变异性与生殖目标之间的联系的一个含义是，关注气候适应的决策者应努力确保妇女获得必要的计划生育资源，以在不断变化的气候中实现动态生殖目标。
Using 40 rounds of Demographic and Health Survey data from 18 sub-Saharan African countries, linked to high-resolution historical climate records, we analyze the relationship between climatic variability and fertility goals among reproductive-aged women. We find that, overall, women exposed to above-average temperatures report lower ideal family size and reduced probability of desiring a first or additional child. Results indicate that exposure to precipitation anomalies during the 12 months prior to the DHS survey is associated with a significant reduction in ideal family size, but longer 60-month spells of above-average precipitation are associated with increases in ideal family size, Effects of unusual precipitation are null for women's fertility preferences at both shorter- and longer-term periods. Additional analyses show that this association varies across sub-populations defined by parity, education, residence in rural or urban areas, and region. In general, our results suggest that women exposed to adverse environmental conditions-namely abnormally hot or dry spells-will reduce their ideal family size and their preferences for having another child. In some cases, however, fertility goals may also decline during spells of favorable environmental conditions, possibly due to increased labor demands among women and their spouses. One implication of the observed links between climate variability and reproductive goals is that policymakers concerned with climate adaptation should work to ensure women have access to the necessary family planning resources needed to realize dynamic reproductive goals in a changing climate.