Lightning hazards to human societies in a changing climate
Lightning hazards to human societies in a changing climate
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/aaea86
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发表时间：
2018-11
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Y. Yair
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Y. Yair
闪电是一种自然灾害，在短时间尺度上具有致命性和破坏性，在较长时间尺度上具有重要的气候影响（通过产生氮氧化物和森林火灾）。它伴随着恶劣的天气、冰雹和山洪暴发，往往造成重大的经济损失。它还对航空安全和风力涡轮机的可再生能源生产构成威胁，并对电力设施和输电线路产生不利影响。当今全球城市化、土地使用和能源生产的趋势通过几种情景与气候变化相关联，这些情景与大气中温室气体的未来浓度有关（“代表性浓度路径”或RCP; IPCC等，2013年气候变化2013：物理科学基础。第一工作组对政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告的贡献（剑桥：剑桥大学出版社）第1535页），以通过能源政策和国际协定。这些情景预测了地球表面附近的大气升温几度，这在地球上许多地区提供了明显不同的气候状况，也影响了大气自然灾害（如热带风暴）的强度和频率。虽然很难准确预测未来的闪电分布情况，但大都市地区、人口增加和气候变暖的结合几乎保证了人类暴露于闪电危害的加剧。我们回顾了目前的人口，城市化和技术使用的趋势，并评估其在不同情况下对未来闪电活动的脆弱性。
Lightning is a natural hazard, lethal and destructive on short time scales and with important climatic effects on longer time-scales (through NOx production and forest fire ignition). It is accompanied by severe weather, hail and flash flooding that often entail significant economic losses. It also poses threats to aviation safety and to renewable energy production by wind-turbines, and is known to adversely affect electric power utilities and transmission lines. Present day global trends in urbanization, land-use and energy production are mapped to climate change through several scenarios, relating future concentrations of green-house gasses in the atmosphere (‘Representative Concentration Pathways’ or RCPs; IPCC et al 2013 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) p 1535) to the adopted energy policies and international agreements. These scenarios predict a few degrees of atmospheric warming near Earth surface, which offer significantly different climatic regimes in many regions on Earth, and also affect the intensity and frequency of atmospheric natural disasters (e.g. tropical storms). Although it is hard to precisely predict what future lightning distributions will look like, the combination of large metropolitan areas, increased population and a warmer climate almost guarantee an intensification of the human exposure to lightning hazard. We review current trends in population, urbanization and technology usage and assess their vulnerability to future lightning activity in different scenarios.