The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation
The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation
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DOI：
10.1002/2015gl067055
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发表时间：
2015-12
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
T. Bracegirdle;D. Stephenson;J. Turner;T. Phillips
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Bracegirdle;D. Stephenson;J. Turner;T. Phillips
在历史模拟中，气候模型在海冰面积(SIA)方面表现出很大的偏差。这项研究探讨了这些偏差对耦合模式比较项目第五阶段(CMIP5)21世纪南极表面温度、净降水和SIA变化的集合预测中多模式不确定性的影响。分析基于典型浓度路径8.5未来情景(2070-2099年)中的时间切片气候和37个不同CMIP5模式的历史(1970-1999年)模拟。预测的净降水、温度和SIA的变化与模拟的历史平均SIA有很强的相关性(例如，r=0.77、0.71和−0.85的跨模式相关)。此外，历史SIA偏差对模拟的净降水响应与温度响应之比有很大的影响。在SIA小于观测的模型中，这一比率较小。这些关于SIA偏差的强大的紧急关系，如果被发现在物理上是可靠的，可以被利用来给出更准确的南极洲气候预测。
Climate models exhibit large biases in sea ice area (SIA) in their historical simulations. This study explores the impacts of these biases on multimodel uncertainty in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble projections of 21st century change in Antarctic surface temperature, net precipitation, and SIA. The analysis is based on time slice climatologies in the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 future scenario (2070–2099) and historical (1970–1999) simulations across 37 different CMIP5 models. Projected changes in net precipitation, temperature, and SIA are found to be strongly associated with simulated historical mean SIA (e.g., cross‐model correlations of r = 0.77, 0.71, and −0.85, respectively). Furthermore, historical SIA bias is found to have a large impact on the simulated ratio between net precipitation response and temperature response. This ratio is smaller in models with smaller‐than‐observed SIA. These strong emergent relationships on SIA bias could, if found to be physically robust, be exploited to give more precise climate projections for Antarctica.