A quantitative risk assessment of waterborne infectious disease in the inundation area of a tropical monsoon region
A quantitative risk assessment of waterborne infectious disease in the inundation area of a tropical monsoon region
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DOI：
10.1007/s11625-011-0141-5
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发表时间：
2012-01-01
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Amano, Ayako
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kazama, So;Aizawa, Toshiki;Amano, Ayako
洪水和淹没是柬埔寨每年雨季发生的事件，洪水与人类健康有着密切的关系。本研究利用水力学模型模拟大肠菌群的分布，并利用剂量反应模型估计洪水对公众健康的影响。模型参数进行了校准，从柬埔寨的实地调查数据，并获得了良好的协议与大肠菌群计数分布。结果表明，洪水对人类健康的影响是最显着的居住区。在中等规模的洪水事件期间，年平均感染风险为0.21。由于地下水的使用而造成的风险在淹没区为0.12至0.17，在淹没区以外则高达0.23。因此，地下水使用的风险高于地表水使用的风险（0.02-0.06），但市中心人口密集区除外。居民区感染水传播疾病的风险很高，小洪水事件期间的年平均风险为0.94。对可能采取的降低风险的对策的评估表明，控制洪水可能会给柬埔寨的公共卫生带来更大的风险。较浅的淹没水（< 0.3米）导致感染的风险较高，但如果深度大于2米，在居民区的风险较低。模拟结果解释了感染风险的空间分布，这对于确定风险相对较高的最高优先级场所至关重要，并将有助于决策者考虑对策的实施。
Flooding and inundation are annual events that occur during the rainy season in Cambodia, and inundation has a strong relationship with human health. This study simulated the coliform bacteria distribution using a hydraulic model and estimated the impact of inundation on public health using a dose-response model. The model parameters were calibrated using field survey data from Cambodia and obtained good agreement with the coliform group count distribution. The results suggest that the impact of inundation on human health is most noticeable in residential areas. The annual average risk of infection during medium-sized flood events is 0.21. The risk due to groundwater use ranges from 0.12 to 0.17 in inundation areas and reaches as high as 0.23 outside the inundation areas. The risk attributed to groundwater use is therefore higher than that for surface water use (0.02-0.06), except in densely populated areas at the city center. There is a high risk for infection with waterborne disease in residential areas, and the annual average risk during small flood events is 0.94. An assessment of possible countermeasures to reduce the risk shows that the control of inundation may bring more risk to public health in Cambodia. Shallower inundation water (< 0.3 m) leads to a higher risk of infection, but if the depth is greater than 2 m, the risk is low in residential areas. The simulated results explain the spatial distributions of infection risk,, which are vitally important for determining the highest priority places with relatively high risk and will be helpful for decision makers when considering the implementation of countermeasures.