An empirical model of changing global competition in the shipbuilding industry
An empirical model of changing global competition in the shipbuilding industry
复制标题
造船业全球竞争变化的实证模型
DOI：
10.1080/03088839.2013.856522
复制
发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Young
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Juneseuk Shin;Young
我们开发了一个实证模型来解释过去三十年来造船业主要国家之间不断变化的全球竞争。不仅是造船公司，航运公司和政府为了制定未来战略，有必要了解其过去的竞争战略逻辑。利用通过文献调查和访谈得出的造船公司的真实战略行为和决策规则，我们利用古诺寡头垄断和 Choquet 预期效用 (CEU) 理论开发了一个模型。日本、韩国和中国这三个国家的参与者要么是乐观的，要么是悲观的，这使得我们能够将参与者的不同态度纳入我们模型的需求不确定性中。通过年度造船吨位数据的多元回归得出竞争反应函数并与估计结果进行比较。我们的研究结果提供了强有力的证据，表明主要参与者必然会使用简单的规则进行竞争数量决策，但当规则无效时就会完全改变规则。此外，参与者的竞争行为既取决于需求不确定性的程度，也取决于参与者对不确定性的不同态度。
We developed an empirical model to explain the changing global competition among major countries involved in the shipbuilding industry over the last three decades. In order to develop future strategies for not only shipbuilding companies but shipping companies and governments, it is necessary to understand the past logic of their competitive strategies. Using the real strategic behaviours and decision rules of shipbuilding companies derived through a literature survey and interviews, we developed a model using the Cournot oligopoly with Choquet Expected Utility (CEU) theory. Three national players, Japan, Korea and China, are supposed to be either optimistic or pessimistic, which allows us to incorporate the different attitude of the players into the demand uncertainty for our model. Competitive reaction functions are derived and compared with the estimation results via multiple regression with annual shipbuilding tonnage data. Our results provide strong evidence that the major players are bound to use simple rules for competitive quantity decisions, but change the rules completely when they become ineffective. In addition, the competitive behaviour of the players depends on both the degree of demand uncertainty and the different attitudes of the players towards uncertainty.