Influence of legacy phosphorus, land use, and climate change on anthropogenic phosphorus inputs and riverine export dynamics
Influence of legacy phosphorus, land use, and climate change on anthropogenic phosphorus inputs and riverine export dynamics
复制标题
遗留磷、土地利用和气候变化对人为磷输入和河流出口动态的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s10533-014-0055-2
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发表时间：
2015-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Dahlgren, Randy A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, Dingjiang;Hu, Minpeng;Dahlgren, Randy A.
定量了解河流磷输出对人为磷输入（NAPI）、土地利用和气候变化的响应，对于制定有效的流域磷控制措施至关重要。研究表明，1980—2010年，中国东部永安河流域6个流域的河流TP年出口量增加了4.1—30.3倍。由于发达土地面积（D%）、排水农用地面积（DA%）和风暴事件分别增加了36 - 43%、30 - 25%和65 - 76%，导致NAPI增加了61 - 85%，NAPI的河流出口比例增加了2.6 - 14.6倍，从而增加了河流TP出口。在31年的累积记录中，1.6 - 14%的NAPI由河流输出，40 - 64%储存在农业土壤的20厘米以上，30 - 55%保留在其他景观位置。一个包含年NAPI、降水、D%和DA%的经验模型可以解释6个流域31年的年河流TP通量变化的94%。该模型估计NAPI和遗留P分别贡献了42 - 92%和8 - 58%的年河流总磷通量。该模式预测，到2030年，由于降水增加4%，河流总磷通量将增加8 - 18%，而与2000-2010年基线条件相比，NAPI和土地利用没有变化。由于土地利用和气候变化，NAPI和遗留P的输出增加，将延迟响应NAPI减少的河流P通量的减少，在制定和评估流域P管理战略时应予以考虑。
A quantitative understanding of riverine phosphorus (P) export in response to changes in anthropogenic P inputs (NAPI), land use and climate is critical for developing effective watershed P control measures. This study indicated that annual riverine TP export for the six catchments of the Yongan River watershed in eastern China increased 4.1–30.3-fold over the 1980–2010 period. Increased riverine TP export resulted from a 61–85 % increase in NAPI and a 2.6–14.6-fold increase in riverine export fraction of NAPI due to 36–43, 30–125, and 65–76 % increases in developed land area (D%), drained agricultural land area (DA%), and storm events, respectively. For the 31-year cumulative record, 1.6–14 % of NAPI was exported by rivers, 40–64 % was stored in the upper 20 cm of agricultural soils, and 30–55 % was retained in other landscape positions. An empirical model that incorporates annual NAPI, precipitation, D%, and DA% accounted for 94 % of the variation in annual riverine TP fluxes across the six catchments and 31 years. The model estimated that NAPI and legacy P contributed 42–92 % and 8–58 % of annual riverine TP flux, respectively. The model forecasts an 8–18 % increase in riverine TP flux by 2030 due to a 4 % increase in precipitation with no changes in NAPI and land use compared to the 2000–2010 baseline condition. Enhanced export of NAPI and legacy P by changes in land use and climate will delay the decrease in riverine P flux in response to NAPI reductions and should be considered in developing and assessing watershed P management strategies.