Using Bayesian space-time models to understand the substance use environment and risk for being referred to child protective services
Using Bayesian space-time models to understand the substance use environment and risk for being referred to child protective services
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DOI：
10.1080/10826080701690649
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发表时间：
2008-01-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Weiss, Robert E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Freisthler, Bridget;Weiss, Robert E.
父母滥用药物经常被认为是儿童被转介接受虐待和忽视儿童调查的一个原因。关于物质使用环境如何影响这种关系的研究仍处于起步阶段，主要只有横断面研究发现社区层面的酒精出口密度与州层面的酒精价格和虐待之间存在正相关关系。一项纵向研究表明，女性因毒品被捕的增加与农村和城市县虐待率的增加有关。目前的研究将物质使用环境的三个方面纳入一项为期 4 年的小组研究中，该研究对加州 58 个县（n = 232）进行了为期 4 年的研究，以研究这种关系，以便将儿童转介到儿童保护服务机构 (CPS) 处理虐待和忽视儿童问题。我们使用条件自回归 (CAR) 贝叶斯模型对数据中的空间和时间结构进行建模。我们发现，福利金的使用、每人口中异常值的数量以及每人口中与毒品相关的逮捕数量与转介呈正相关，而失业和接受公共资助的酗酒和吸毒者治疗计划则与转介呈负相关。还发现了重要的空间结构和时空关系。研究结果表明，酒精和毒品的供应（以酒精销售点的数量以及因吸毒和销售而被捕的人数来衡量）可能会增加被转诊至 CPS 的风险，但药物滥用治疗不会增加转诊的风险。
Parental substance misuse has often been cited as a cause of children being referred for investigation of child abuse and neglect. Research on how the substance use environment might affect this relationship is still in its infancy with primarily only cross-sectional studies finding a positive relationship of alcohol outlet density at the level of neighborhoods and alcohol prices at level of states and maltreatment. A longitudinal study shows that increasing female drug-related arrests are related to increasing rates of maltreatment in rural and urban counties. The current study incorporates three aspects of the substance use environment in a panel study of 58 California counties over 4 years (n = 232) to study this relationship for referrals to child protective services (CPS) for child abuse and neglect. We use conditionally autoregressive (CAR) Bayesian models to model the spatial and temporal structure in the data. We find that use of welfare benefits, the number of outliers per population, and the number of drug-related arrests per population are positively related to referrals while unemployment and admissions to publicly funded alcohol and drug user treatment programs are negatively correlated to referrals. Significant spatial structure and space-time relationships are also found. The findings indicate that supply of alcohol and drugs (as measured by number of alcohol outlets and arrests for drug use and sales) may increase risk for being referred to CPS, but treatment for substance use does not increase the risk for referral.