Can spending to upgrade electricity networks to support electric vehicles (EVs) roll-outs unlock value in the wider economy?
Can spending to upgrade electricity networks to support electric vehicles (EVs) roll-outs unlock value in the wider economy?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111117
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发表时间：
2020-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Calvillo, Christian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alabi, Oluwafisayo;Turner, Karen;Calvillo, Christian
我们调查了这样一个问题，即用于实现雄心勃勃的电动汽车推广计划的支出实际上是否可以在更广泛的经济中产生净收益。我们使用多部门可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型为英国经济和重点需要升级电力网络，以支持到2030年期间的初始电动汽车渗透情况。我们发现，网络升级的大规模支出和成本回收可能会对关键宏观经济指标产生净负面影响，包括所有英国家庭可用于支出的真实的收入。这是由于在容量有限的情况下进行有时限的网络升级活动，以及需要通过提高电费将成本转嫁给电力消费者。但最低收入家庭--决策者最关心的群体--遭受的损失最小。此外，电动汽车的普及带来了足够的收益，对所有家庭收入产生了净积极影响，整个经济体的GDP和就业持续增长。关键驱动因素是对英国供应链的依赖程度越来越高，从进口密集型的汽油和柴油燃料汽车转向电动汽车。
We investigate the question of whether spending to enable ambitious EV roll-out programmes can in fact generate net gains across the wider economy. We use a multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for the UK economy and focus on the need to upgrade electricity networks to support an initial EV penetration scenario for the period to 2030. We find that large scale spending and cost recovery for network upgrades is likely to result in net negative impacts on key macroeconomic indicators, including real income available for spending across all UK households. This is due to a combination of time-limited network upgrade activity in the presence of capacity constraints combined with the need for costs to be passed on to electricity consumers through higher bills. But the lowest income households - the group of greatest concern to policymakers - suffer the smallest losses. Moreover, the EV uptake delivers sufficient gains that deliver net positive impacts on all household incomes, with sustained expansion in GDP and employment across the economy. The key driver is a greater reliance on UK supply chains with the shift away from more import-intensive petrol and diesel fuelled vehicles towards electric ones.