Vaccine Efficacy Needed for a COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine to Prevent or Stop an Epidemic as the Sole Intervention
Vaccine Efficacy Needed for a COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine to Prevent or Stop an Epidemic as the Sole Intervention
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DOI：
10.1016/j.amepre.2020.06.011
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发表时间：
2020-10-01
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Lee, Bruce Y.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bartsch, Sarah M.;O'Shea, Kelly J.;Lee, Bruce Y.
简介：鉴于 COVID-19 大流行持续，且美国大部分地区由于缺乏替代方案而实行社交距离，因此一直在推动开发疫苗来消除社交距离的需要。方法：2020 年，该团队开发了美国的计算模型，模拟 COVID-19 冠状病毒的传播和疫苗接种。结果：模拟实验表明，要预防流行病（将峰值减少 > 99%），疫苗功效必须至少为 60%当疫苗接种覆盖率达到100%时（繁殖数=2.5-3.5）。当覆盖率下降至 75% 时，该疫苗效力阈值上升至 70%；当繁殖数为 2.5 时，当覆盖率下降至 60% 时，该疫苗效力阈值上升至 80%；当繁殖数为 3.5 时，当覆盖率下降至 75% 时，该疫苗效力阈值上升至 80%。为了消灭持续的流行病，当覆盖率达到 100% 时，疫苗效力必须至少为 60%；当覆盖率降至 75% 时，疫苗效力必须至少为 80%，以便在 5%、15% 和 30% 的人口已经接触过 COVID-19 冠状病毒后接种疫苗，从而将峰值降低 85%-86%、61%-62% 和 32%。效力在 60% 到 80% 之间的疫苗在某些情况下仍然可以避免采取其他措施的需要，例如更高的疫苗接种覆盖率，在某些情况下可能无法实现。结论：这项研究发现，在不采取任何其他措施（例如社交距离）的情况下，疫苗的效力必须至少达到 70% 才能预防流行病，并且必须有至少 80% 的效力才能基本上消灭流行病。 (C) 2020 年美国预防医学杂志。由爱思唯尔公司出版。保留所有权利。
Introduction: Given the continuing COVID-19 pandemic and much of the U.S. implementing social distancing owing to the lack of alternatives, there has been a push to develop a vaccine to eliminate the need for social distancing.Methods: In 2020, the team developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus and vaccination.Results: Simulation experiments revealed that to prevent an epidemic (reduce the peak by >99%), the vaccine efficacy has to be at least 60% when vaccination coverage is 100% (reproduction number=2.5-3.5). This vaccine efficacy threshold rises to 70% when coverage drops to 75% and up to 80% when coverage drops to 60% when reproduction number is 2.5, rising to 80% when coverage drops to 75% when the reproduction number is 3.5. To extinguish an ongoing epidemic, the vaccine efficacy has to be at least 60% when coverage is 100% and at least 80% when coverage drops to 75% to reduce the peak by 85%-86%, 61%-62%, and 32% when vaccination occurs after 5%, 15%, and 30% of the population, respectively, have already been exposed to COVID-19 coronavirus. A vaccine with an efficacy between 60% and 80% could still obviate the need for other measures under certain circumstances such as much higher, and in some cases, potentially unachievable, vaccination coverages.Conclusions: This study found that the vaccine has to have an efficacy of at least 70% to prevent an epidemic and of at least 80% to largely extinguish an epidemic without any other measures (e.g., social distancing). (C) 2020 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.