INFLUENZA MORTALITY AMONG THE ELDERLY IN FRANCE, 1980-90 - HOW MANY DEATHS MAY HAVE BEEN AVOIDED THROUGH VACCINATION
INFLUENZA MORTALITY AMONG THE ELDERLY IN FRANCE, 1980-90 - HOW MANY DEATHS MAY HAVE BEEN AVOIDED THROUGH VACCINATION
复制标题
DOI：
10.1136/jech.49.4.419
复制
发表时间：
1995-08-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
VALLERON, AJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
CARRAT, F;VALLERON, AJ
研究目的-这项研究的目的是评估总的流感死亡率在老年人（大于或等于75岁）在法国，并评估有多少死亡可能已经避免了通过接种疫苗在过去10 years.Design -每月死亡率相关的不同原因在老年人之间获得的国家死亡率统计期间1978-90。对于每种原因，使用时间序列模型估计了流感导致的登记死亡率的比例。每一个模型都分析了所考虑原因的登记死亡率，作为该月登记流感死亡率、长期趋势和季节变化的线性函数。这产生了流感的年度回归系数。其后，根据疫苗的覆盖率和疫苗的假设有效性，制定了估计因接种流感疫苗而避免的死亡率的公式。主要结果：1980年至1990年期间，登记的流感死亡率为每10万人11-81人。可归因于流感但登记为其他原因导致的死亡人数是登记为流感的死亡人数的八倍。总的流感死亡率估计为每10万人28人（1988-89年）至每10万人482人（1985-86年）。与此同时，据估计，使用流感疫苗避免了从1981-82年的每10万人死亡7至1989-90年的每10万人死亡697人，这取决于流行的强度，疫苗覆盖率和疫苗的有效性。结论-这些结果支持在老年人中促进流感疫苗接种的政策。
Study objectives - This study aimed to assess total influenza mortality among the elderly (greater than or equal to 75 years old) in France, and to evaluate how many deaths may have been avoided through vaccination during the past 10 years.Design - The monthly mortality rates related to different causes among the elderly were obtained from the national mortality statistics for the period 1978-90. For each cause, the proportion of the registered death rate attributable to influenza was estimated using time series models. Each model analysed the registered death rate for the considered cause as a linear function of the registered influenza death rate for that month, the secular trend, and the seasonal variations. This yielded yearly regression coefficients for influenza. Formulas were subsequently developed to estimate the death rates avoided as a result of influenza vaccination according to the level of vaccine coverage and the hypothetical effectiveness of the vaccine.Main results - Between 1980 and 1990 registered influenza death rates ranged from 11-81 per 100 000. The number of deaths attributable to influenza but registered as resulting from another cause was up to eight times the number of deaths registered as influenza. Total influenza death rates were estimated as ranging from 28 per 100 000 (1988-89) to 482 per 10000 (1985-86). At the same time it was estimated that the use of influenza vaccine avoided from 7 per 100 000 deaths in 1981-82 to 697 per 100 000 deaths in 1989-90, depending on the intensity of the epidemic, the vaccine coverage, and the vaccine effectiveness.Conclusions - These results support the policy of promoting influenza vaccination among the elderly.