Deconstructing the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks
Deconstructing the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-015-2510-8
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发表时间：
2015-02
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
B. Harvey;L. Shaffrey;T. Woollings
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Harvey;L. Shaffrey;T. Woollings
大气环流对气候变化的响应存在很大的不确定性。这方面的一个表现是，不同的最先进的气候模式对热带风暴路径的预测有很大的差异。在这项研究中，我们进行了一系列的敏感性实验，与一个单一的气候模式的大气成分，以确定在不同的模式风暴轴响应之间的差异的原因。特别是，北方半球冬季风暴路径中的CMIP3多模式集合被认为是。一些潜在的物理驱动程序的风暴路径变化的确定和它们对风暴路径的影响进行了评估。实验设计的目的是扰动不同的物理驱动程序独立，由代表CMIP 3模型运行中存在的值的范围的幅度，这是通过扰动海表面温度和海冰浓度强迫场来实现的。我们提出这样一个问题：CMIP 3模式中出现的温带风暴路径的预测传播是否可以通过任何已识别的驱动因素以简单的方式进行解释？结果表明，虽然在对流层赤道到极点的温度差的变化对风暴轴响应气候变化的影响，大传播的预测目前在北大西洋的北方特别是在对流层赤道到极点的温度差较低的变化更密切相关。
There are large uncertainties in the circulation response of the atmosphere to climate change. One manifestation of this is the substantial spread in projections for the extratropical storm tracks made by different state-of-the-art climate models. In this study we perform a series of sensitivity experiments, with the atmosphere component of a single climate model, in order to identify the causes of the differences between storm track responses in different models. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks in the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble are considered. A number of potential physical drivers of storm track change are identified and their influence on the storm tracks is assessed. The experimental design aims to perturb the different physical drivers independently, by magnitudes representative of the range of values present in the CMIP3 model runs, and this is achieved via perturbations to the sea surface temperature and the sea-ice concentration forcing fields. We ask the question: can the spread of projections for the extratropical storm tracks present in the CMIP3 models be accounted for in a simple way by any of the identified drivers? The results suggest that, whilst the changes in the upper-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference have an influence on the storm track response to climate change, the large spread of projections for the extratropical storm track present in the northern North Atlantic in particular is more strongly associated with changes in the lower-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference.