Potential Cardiovascular and Total Mortality Benefits of Air Pollution Control in Urban China.
Potential Cardiovascular and Total Mortality Benefits of Air Pollution Control in Urban China.
复制标题
中国城市空气污染控制对心血管和总死亡率的潜在益处
DOI：
10.1161/circulationaha.116.026487
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发表时间：
2017-10-24
期刊：
影响因子：
37.8
通讯作者：
Gu D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huang C;Moran AE;Coxson PG;Yang X;Liu F;Cao J;Chen K;Wang M;He J;Goldman L;Zhao D;Kinney PL;Gu D
室外空气污染在中国可预防的疾病负担中排名第四。我们假设，中国城市空气质量改善带来的健康收益可以与达到推荐的血压或吸烟控制目标相媲美。中国心血管疾病政策模型预测了2017年至2030年中国城市35 - 84岁成年人的冠心病、中风和全因死亡，前提是近期空气质量（空气动力学直径≤ 2.5 μ m的颗粒物，PM2.5）和传统心血管风险因素趋势持续。我们预测了中国城市达到三个空气质量目标之一的生命年：北京奥运会水平（平均PM2.5，55 μ g/m3），中国二级标准（35 μ g/m3）或世界卫生组织（WHO）标准（10 μ g/m3）。我们将减少空气污染的预期控制效益与实现世卫组织高血压和烟草控制目标的潜在效益进行了比较。到2030年，PM2.5平均减少到北京奥运会的水平，（95%不确定性区间，189，000 - 293，000）生命年。达到中国二级标准或WHO PM2.5标准将产生更大的健康益处[992，000（95%不确定性区间，790，000 - 1，180，000）或1，827，000（95%不确定区间，1，481，000 - 2，129，000）年寿命年，与WHO推荐的收缩期高血压控制改善25%和吸烟减少30%的目标相比[928，000（95%不确定性区间，830，000 - 1，033，000）寿命年]。在不同的情况下，空气质量的改善可能会带来分级的健康益处，从获得241，000生命年到更大的益处，这些益处等于或大于收缩期高血压控制改善25%和吸烟减少30%的综合益处。
Outdoor air pollution ranks fourth among preventable causes of China's burden of disease. We hypothesized that the magnitude of health gains from air quality improvement in urban China could compare with achieving recommended blood pressure or smoking control goals. The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-China projected coronary heart disease, stroke, and all-cause deaths in urban Chinese adults aged 35-84 years from 2017 to 2030 if recent air quality (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm, PM2.5) and traditional cardiovascular risk factor trends continue. We projected life years gained if urban China were to reach one of three air quality goals: Beijing Olympic Games level (mean PM2.5, 55 μg/m3), China Class II standard (35 μg/m3), or World Health Organization (WHO) standard (10 μg/m3). We compared projected air pollution reduction control benefits with potential benefits of reaching WHO hypertension and tobacco control goals. Mean PM2.5 reduction to Beijing Olympic levels by 2030 would gain about 241,000 (95% uncertainty interval, 189,000-293,000) life-years annually. Achieving either the China Class II standard or WHO PM2.5 standard would yield greater health benefits [992,000 (95% uncertainty interval, 790,000-1,180,000) or 1,827,000 (95% uncertainty interval, 1,481,000-2,129,000) annual life years gained, respectively] than WHO-recommended goals of 25% improvement in systolic hypertension control and 30% reduction in smoking combined [928,000 (95% uncertainty interval, 830,000-1,033,000) life years]. Air quality improvement at different scenarios could lead to graded health benefits ranging from 241,000 life-years gained to much greater benefits are equal to or greater than the combined benefits of 25% improvement in systolic hypertension control and 30% smoking reduction.