Learning about climate change uncertainty enables flexible water infrastructure planning
Learning about climate change uncertainty enables flexible water infrastructure planning
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-019-09677-x
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发表时间：
2019-04-16
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Strzepek, Kenneth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fletcher, Sarah;Lickley, Megan;Strzepek, Kenneth
水资源规划需要在未来区域气候条件不确定的情况下进行基础设施建设决策。然而，随着新的气候观测的出现，气候变化预测的不确定性将在大坝的100年寿命内演变。在灵活的战略中，主动设计基础设施以适应未来的变化，有可能在不进行昂贵的过度建设的情况下满足供水需求。评估灵活的和传统的静态规划方法之间的权衡，需要扩展气候变化不确定性下的现有规划范例，这些范例没有评估未来减少不确定性的机会。我们开发了一个新的规划框架，评估随着时间的推移了解区域气候变化的潜力，从而评估当今灵活方法的适宜性。我们在肯尼亚蒙巴萨的一个水库规划问题上演示了它。这一方法确定了可靠地使用增量方法的机会，使适应投资能够以更少的资源惠及更脆弱的社区。
Water resources planning requires decision-making about infrastructure development under uncertainty in future regional climate conditions. However, uncertainty in climate change projections will evolve over the 100-year lifetime of a dam as new climate observations become available. Flexible strategies in which infrastructure is proactively designed to be changed in the future have the potential to meet water supply needs without expensive overbuilding. Evaluating tradeoffs between flexible and traditional static planning approaches requires extension of current paradigms for planning under climate change uncertainty which do not assess opportunities to reduce uncertainty in the future. We develop a new planning framework that assesses the potential to learn about regional climate change over time and therefore evaluates the appropriateness of flexible approaches today. We demonstrate it on a reservoir planning problem in Mombasa, Kenya. This approach identifies opportunities to reliably use incremental approaches, enabling adaptation investments to reach more vulnerable communities with fewer resources.