MERS-CoV spillover at the camel-human interface
MERS-CoV spillover at the camel-human interface
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DOI：
10.7554/elife.31257
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发表时间：
2018-01-16
期刊：
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Bedford, Trevor
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dudas, Gytis;Carvalho, Luiz Max;Bedford, Trevor
中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒（MERS-CoV）是一种来自骆驼的人畜共患病毒，在阿拉伯半岛引起人类的严重死亡和发病。该病毒的流行病学仍然知之甚少，虽然在整个流行病期间广泛采用了基于病例的血清流行病学研究，但病毒序列数据尚未充分利用。在这里，我们使用现有的MERS-CoV序列数据来探索其在两个已知的主要宿主，人类和骆驼中的传播动力学。我们采用结构化的结合模型，以表明长期MERS-CoV的演变只发生在骆驼，而人类作为一个短暂的，最终终端主机。通过分析人类疫情集群大小和人畜共患病传入时间的分布，我们发现，阿拉伯半岛的人类疫情是由季节性变化的人畜共患病病毒从骆驼转移驱动的。如果没有迄今为止未见的宿主嗜性进化，MERS CoV不太可能成为人类的地方病。
Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is a zoonotic virus from camels causing significant mortality and morbidity in humans in the Arabian Peninsula. The epidemiology of the virus remains poorly understood, and while case-based and seroepidemiological studies have been employed extensively throughout the epidemic, viral sequence data have not been utilised to their full potential. Here, we use existing MERS-CoV sequence data to explore its phylodynamics in two of its known major hosts, humans and camels. We employ structured coalescent models to show that long-term MERS-CoV evolution occurs exclusively in camels, whereas humans act as a transient, and ultimately terminal host. By analysing the distribution of human outbreak cluster sizes and zoonotic introduction times, we show that human outbreaks in the Arabian peninsula are driven by seasonally varying zoonotic transfer of viruses from camels. Without heretofore unseen evolution of host tropism, MERS-CoV is unlikely to become endemic in humans.