Cause and Consequence in Maize Planting Dates in Germany
Cause and Consequence in Maize Planting Dates in Germany
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德国玉米播种日期的原因和后果
DOI：
10.1111/jac.12182
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Aurbacher
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Parker;Shonkwiler;Aurbacher
农业适应的一个重要部分是作物播种日期的时间，影响产量和在特定季节发生的风险水平。冷胁迫对玉米来说尤其重要，因此在春季播种的时机是对短期天气的战术反应，但也受到长期气候的战略规划的影响。这两个因素都将低温胁迫的潜在影响与提早种植可获得的额外产量进行了比较。适应欧洲生长条件和春季气温普遍上升的新品种使种植得以提早，但仍取决于种植期的短期天气。在田间级决策的背景下，使用面板回归来估计德国各地特定地点每周当地温度和降雨量与种植日期之间的关系。接下来，将当地的天气数据和种植行为与地区(Landkreis)的产量联系起来，以显示种植日期对产量的影响。在这些关系的基础上，探索了最佳种植日期以及相关的成本和收益。结果表明，随着春季气温的升高和更耐寒品种的问世，出现了提早种植的趋势，但关键时期最低气温的加剧缓冲了这一进展。提早种植可能会增加产量，但这被额外的管理成本和风险所抵消。对气候、技术和经济背景下的农民行为进行有力而简单的描述，有助于理解影响农业景观的作物管理和生产力的趋势。
An important part of agricultural adaptation is the timing of crop sowing dates, affecting yields and the level of risk incurred during a particular season. Cold stress is especially relevant in maize,Zea maysL., so that the timing of planting in the spring is a tactical response to short‐term weather, but is also subject to strategic planning with regard to longer‐term climate. Both factors compare the potential implications of cold stress to the additional yield obtainable through earlier planting. New cultivars suited to growing conditions in Europe and generally increasing spring temperatures have enabled earlier planting, but it is still dependent on short‐term weather during the planting period. In the context of field‐level decision‐making, a panel regression is used to estimate the relationship between weekly local temperature and precipitation and planting dates at specific sites throughout Germany. Next, localised weather data and planting behaviour are linked to yields at the district (Landkreis) level to show the effects of planting date on yield. Based on these relationships optimal planting dates are explored with some associated costs and benefits. Results show a trend towards earlier planting that follows observed increasing spring temperatures and the availability of more cold‐tolerant cultivars but this advance is buffered by the increasing severity of minimum temperatures during a critical period. Earlier planting potentially increases yield but this is offset by additional management costs and risk. A robust and simple depiction of farmer behaviour in climatic, technological and economic context can help to understand trends in crop management and productivity that effect agricultural landscapes.
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