Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves at Ungauged Sites in a Changing Climate for Sustainable Stormwater Networks
Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves at Ungauged Sites in a Changing Climate for Sustainable Stormwater Networks
复制标题
可持续雨水网络气候变化中未测量地点的强度-持续时间-频率曲线
DOI：
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Christos Iliadis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Galiatsatou;Christos Iliadis
强度-持续时间-频率（IDF）曲线代表了极端降雨事件强度随重现期和暴雨持续时间的变化，广泛用于水文基础设施设计、洪水风险管理项目和气候变化影响研究。然而，在世界上许多地方，不存在具有长期记录的短期卫星观测站点。本文介绍了一种新的方法框架，提取IDF曲线在未测量的网站传递信息，从测量的一个相对均匀的极端降雨气候。这种方法是基于一个简单的缩放概念的基础上的降雨的多重分形行为。一个非平稳的广义极值（GEV）分布拟合的年降雨量月最大值在未测量的网站使用移动时间窗的方法也适用于考虑气候变化对IDF曲线建设的影响。应用程序是在研究现场的Fourni，克里特岛，在不断变化的气候条件下，得出IDF曲线和目前的影响，所提出的方法在设计一个可持续的雨水网络。在这项工作中引入的方法导致降雨极端增加到20.5%，而新设计的雨水网络的特点是增加直径的主要管道，相比，在完全静止的条件下产生的。
Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves representing the variation of the magnitude of extreme rainfall events with a return period and storm duration are widely used in hydrologic infrastructure design, flood risk management projects, and climate change impact studies. However, in many locations worldwide, short-duration rainfall-observing sites with long records do not exist. This paper introduces a new methodological framework for extracting IDF curves at ungauged sites transferring information from gauged ones with a relatively homogeneous extreme rainfall climate. This methodology is grounded on a simple scaling concept based on the multifractal behaviour of rainfall. A nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution fitted to annual rainfall monthly maxima at the ungauged site using a moving-time window approach is also applied to consider effects of a changing climate on IDF curve construction. An application is presented at the study site of Fourni, Crete, to derive IDF curves under changing climate conditions and present implications of the proposed methodology in the design of a sustainable stormwater network. The methodology introduced in this work results in increased rainfall extremes up to 20.5%, while the newly designed stormwater network is characterised by increased diameters of its primary conduits, compared to the ones resulting under fully stationary conditions.