Nine challenges for deterministic epidemic models.
Nine challenges for deterministic epidemic models.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.006
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发表时间：
2015-03
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Pellis L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Roberts M;Andreasen V;Lloyd A;Pellis L
确定性模型在传染病流行病学研究中有着悠久的历史。我们强调并讨论了这一领域的九个挑战。前两个问题涉及地方病平衡及其稳定性。我们指出，需要模型描述多株感染，感染随时间变化的传染性，和那些超级感染是可能的。然后，我们认为需要在空间流行病模型的进步，并提请注意缺乏模型，探讨传染性和非传染性疾病之间的关系。最后两个挑战涉及确定性模型作为随机系统近似的用途和局限性。
Deterministic models have a long history of being applied to the study of infectious disease epidemiology. We highlight and discuss nine challenges in this area. The first two concern the endemic equilibrium and its stability. We indicate the need for models that describe multi-strain infections, infections with time-varying infectivity, and those where super infection is possible. We then consider the need for advances in spatial epidemic models, and draw attention to the lack of models that explore the relationship between communicable and non-communicable diseases. The final two challenges concern the uses and limitations of deterministic models as approximations to stochastic systems.