Human pressures predict species' geographic range size better than biological traits
Human pressures predict species' geographic range size better than biological traits
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.12834
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发表时间：
2015-06-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Santini, Luca
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Di Marco, Moreno;Santini, Luca
地理范围大小是物种内在性状与外在环境条件复杂相互作用的表现。它是物种的基本生态属性，也是一个重要的灭绝风险关联。过去的研究主要集中在范围大小的生物和环境预测因子的作用，但宏观生态模式也可能被人类活动扭曲。在此，我们分析了外在变量（生物地理、栖息地状态、气候、人类压力）和内在变量（生物学）在预测世界陆生哺乳动物活动范围大小中的作用。特别是，我们的目的是比较人类压力和物种生物学的预测能力。我们评估了19个内在和外在变量对4867种陆生哺乳动物范围大小的预测能力。在排除限制范围物种后，我们重复分析，并对不同生物地理领域和分类类群的物种进行单独分析。我们的模型具有较高的预测能力，并表明气候变量和人类压力是影响范围大小的最大预测因子。有趣的是，人类压力比生物特征更能预测当前地理范围的大小。这些发现在大范围物种、个体生物地理区域和个体分类类群的重复分析中得到了证实。在过去，气候和人类的影响决定了哺乳动物物种的灭绝，也是塑造哺乳动物目前分布的主要因素。这些因素也影响着全球其他脊椎动物群体，它们对范围大小的影响可能也是相似的。测量气候和人类变量可以获得数据不足和新发现物种（例如全世界数百种哺乳动物物种）的大致范围大小估计值。我们的研究结果表明，在形成物种分布范围时，需要更仔细地考虑气候变化和人类影响的作用，而不是物种的生物学特征。
Geographic range size is the manifestation of complex interactions between intrinsic species traits and extrinsic environmental conditions. It is also a fundamental ecological attribute of species and a key extinction risk correlate. Past research has primarily focused on the role of biological and environmental predictors of range size, but macroecological patterns can also be distorted by human activities. Here, we analyse the role of extrinsic (biogeography, habitat state, climate, human pressure) and intrinsic (biology) variables in predicting range size of the world's terrestrial mammals. In particular, our aim is to compare the predictive ability of human pressure vs. species biology. We evaluated the ability of 19 intrinsic and extrinsic variables in predicting range size for 4867 terrestrial mammals. We repeated the analyses after excluding restricted-range species and performed separate analyses for species in different biogeographic realms and taxonomic groups. Our model had high predictive ability and showed that climatic variables and human pressures are the most influential predictors of range size. Interestingly, human pressures predict current geographic range size better than biological traits. These findings were confirmed when repeating the analyses on large-ranged species, individual biogeographic regions and individual taxonomic groups. Climatic and human impacts have determined the extinction of mammal species in the past and are the main factors shaping the present distribution of mammals. These factors also affect other vertebrate groups globally, and their influence on range size may be similar as well. Measuring climatic and human variables can allow to obtain approximate range size estimations for data-deficient and newly discovered species (e.g. hundreds of mammal species worldwide). Our results support the need for a more careful consideration of the role of climate change and human impact - as opposed to species biological characteristics - in shaping species distribution ranges.