Human mobility restrictions and the spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China.
Human mobility restrictions and the spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104272
复制
发表时间：
2020-11
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Yang Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fang H;Wang L;Yang Y
我们量化了人员流动限制（特别是 2020 年 1 月 23 日武汉封城）对遏制和延迟新型冠状病毒 (2019-nCoV) 传播的因果影响。我们采用双重差分（DID）估计来区分封锁对人员流动性减少的影响与其他混杂影响，包括恐慌效应、病毒效应和春节效应。武汉封城导致武汉流入减少76.98%，武汉流出减少56.31%，武汉内部流动减少55.91%。我们还估计了来自武汉和其他湖北城市（2019-nCoV 疫情爆发中心）的多达 22 个滞后人口流入对目的地城市新增感染病例的动态影响。我们还提供证据表明，湖北省以外的 98 个中国城市加强的社会距离政策有效减少了湖北省震中城市的人口流入对 2019-nCoV 在目的地城市传播的影响。我们发现，在 2020 年 1 月 23 日武汉未被封锁的反事实世界中，湖北省以外的 347 个中国城市的 COVID-19 病例将增加 105.27%。我们的研究结果与全球遏制大流行的努力相关。我们量化了人员流动限制（特别是武汉封城）对 COVID-19 传播的因果影响。我们采用 DID 估计来区分锁定效应与恐慌效应、病毒效应和春节效应。武汉封城使武汉的流入量、流出量和内部流动量分别减少了76.98%、56.31%和55.91%。如果没有武汉封锁，湖北省以外的 347 个中国城市的 COVID-19 病例将增加 105.27%。
We quantify the causal impact of human mobility restrictions, particularly the lockdown of Wuhan on January 23, 2020, on the containment and delay of the spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). We employ difference-in-differences (DID) estimations to disentangle the lockdown effect on human mobility reductions from other confounding effects including panic effect, virus effect, and the Spring Festival effect. The lockdown of Wuhan reduced inflows to Wuhan by 76.98%, outflows from Wuhan by 56.31%, and within-Wuhan movements by 55.91%. We also estimate the dynamic effects of up to 22 lagged population inflows from Wuhan and other Hubei cities – the epicenter of the 2019-nCoV outbreak – on the destination cities' new infection cases. We also provide evidence that the enhanced social distancing policies in the 98 Chinese cities outside Hubei province were effective in reducing the impact of the population inflows from the epicenter cities in Hubei province on the spread of 2019-nCoV in the destination cities. We find that in the counterfactual world in which Wuhan were not locked down on January 23, 2020, the COVID-19 cases would be 105.27% higher in the 347 Chinese cities outside Hubei province. Our findings are relevant in the global efforts in pandemic containment. We quantify the causal impact of human mobility restrictions, particularly the Wuhan lockdown, on the spread of COVID-19. We employ DID estimations to disentangle the lockdown effect from panic effect, virus effect, and Spring Festival effect. Wuhan lockdown reduced inflows to, outflows from, and within movements in, Wuhan by 76.98%, 56.31% and 55.91%, respectively. Without Wuhan lockdown, COVID-19 cases would be 105.27% higher in the 347 Chinese cities outside Hubei province.